Maersk Returns to Red Sea as Container Transits Hit 10-Week High
The signal
After months of Houthi-driven diversions around Africa's Cape of Good Hope, container shipping on the Suez Canal-Red Sea corridor is showing tentative signs of recovery. Data from Drewry's Red Sea Diversion Tracker reveals that containership transits reached a 10-week high in mid-May, with 32 vessels transiting the week of May 17—marking the highest weekly count since the conflict escalation in February 2024. Notably, Maersk has resumed limited operations on the route, specifically on a Gemini service loop with Hapag-Lloyd that connects Asia, the Mediterranean, and Saudi Arabia via a hybrid routing model. However, the recovery remains fragile and geographically constrained.
Only three major carriers—CMA CGM (7 ships), MSC (3 ships), and Maersk (1 ship)—deployed vessels larger than 8,000 TEUs via Suez during the week of May 17. Maersk's participation is limited to the northern reaches of the canal, suggesting a cautious, selective approach rather than full-scale return. Critically, the Cape of Good Hope remains the dominant route with approximately 190-200 transits per week, underscoring that the majority of Asia-Europe container traffic continues to accept the extra two weeks of transit time as a security premium over Suez-Red Sea exposure. For supply chain professionals, this signals neither a return to pre-crisis normalcy nor a structural shift.
Rather, it reflects carriers' incremental testing of Suez viability through carefully constructed service loops that balance cost optimization against geopolitical and security risk. The fragmented carrier participation and continued dominance of the Cape route suggest that full normalization remains distant, with operational and commercial uncertainty likely to persist for months.
Frequently Asked Questions
What This Means for Your Supply Chain
What if Suez security risks escalate and remaining carriers retreat to all-Cape routing?
Model a scenario where increased Houthi attacks or regional military escalation causes CMA CGM, MSC, and Maersk to immediately suspend Suez operations and revert all Asia-Europe traffic to Cape of Good Hope routing. Simulate impact on Asia-Europe transit times (+12-14 days), total weekly Cape transits (rising from 190-200 to 220+ per week), port congestion at Cape gateways (Port Said, Suez, Port Tanjung Pelepas), and carrier spot rate volatility on major trades.
Run this scenarioWhat if regional tensions ease and carriers scale up Suez operations to 60+ weekly transits?
Model a de-escalation scenario where political negotiations or military de-tension encourages CMA CGM, MSC, Maersk, and other carriers to significantly expand Suez participation. Simulate impact on Asia-Europe transit times (-8-10 days versus Cape routing), modal shift from Cape to Suez (50% of weekly traffic), Port Said and Suez Canal throughput stress, and spot rate compression on major East-West trades due to service capacity increases.
Run this scenarioGet the daily supply chain briefing
Top stories, Pulse score, and disruption alerts. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
