80% of Supply Chain Leaders Brace for 2 More Years of Disruptions
A significant majority of supply chain leaders—80% according to a Maersk survey—anticipate that operational disruptions will continue for at least two additional years. This finding reflects the structural challenges persisting in global logistics networks and signals that the industry has moved beyond temporary recovery phases into a period of sustained volatility. The expectation of prolonged disruption underscores the need for enterprises to embed resilience into their core supply chain strategy rather than treating disruptions as cyclical phenomena. This outlook has profound implications for supply chain professionals across industries. Organizations must recalibrate their demand forecasting, inventory positioning, and supplier diversification strategies to accommodate an extended period of uncertainty. The survey suggests that disruption is no longer an exception but an operating norm, requiring investment in visibility tools, redundant transportation options, and strategic buffer stock to absorb shocks. For procurement and logistics teams, this means prioritizing flexibility over cost optimization in the near term. The persistence of disruptions—whether driven by geopolitical tensions, port congestion, carrier capacity constraints, or labor challenges—reflects a fundamental restructuring of global supply chains. Companies that treat the next two years as a temporary adjustment period risk competitive disadvantage compared to peers who view this as a new baseline requiring permanent operational changes and increased investment in supply chain technology and talent.
Supply Chain Leaders Brace for Extended Volatility
The latest Maersk survey delivers a sobering message to supply chain executives: four out of five leaders expect operational disruptions to persist for at least two more years. This forecast represents a critical inflection point in post-pandemic supply chain recovery, signaling that the industry has entered a structural period of sustained uncertainty rather than a temporary adjustment phase. The findings challenge the optimistic narrative that dominated 2023 and early 2024, forcing companies to reassess their strategic planning horizons and operational investment priorities.
The expectation of prolonged disruption reflects a complex, interrelated set of challenges affecting global logistics networks. Port congestion in key hubs, persistent carrier capacity constraints, geopolitical complications disrupting traditional trade routes, and structural labor market imbalances all contribute to an operating environment that resists quick resolution. Unlike the acute disruptions of 2021-2022 driven by pandemic lockdowns, today's challenges are more diffuse and resilient—embedded in aging port infrastructure, concentrated carrier capacity, and fragmented sourcing networks that cannot be rapidly reconfigured.
For supply chain professionals, this outlook necessitates a fundamental shift from tactical optimization to strategic resilience. Organizations that built their competitive advantage on cost minimization through lean inventory and single-source suppliers now face a choice: either invest in redundancy and flexibility, or accept elevated risk of service failures and margin erosion over the next 24 months. The Maersk survey implicitly endorses the former approach, validating investments in supply chain visibility, alternative transportation modes, and supplier diversification that were previously considered luxury expenditures.
Operational Implications and Strategic Responses
The two-year disruption forecast creates three critical operational imperatives. First, demand planning and inventory strategies must shift toward greater conservatism. Companies should increase safety stock levels for critical categories by 20-30%, lengthen lead time assumptions in procurement planning, and build geographic buffer inventory in regional distribution centers. While this increases inventory carrying costs, the trade-off reduces the probability of stock-outs and preserves market share during volatile periods.
Second, procurement and logistics teams should aggressively pursue sourcing and routing diversification. Single-source suppliers or single-route dependencies become increasingly untenable when disruptions are expected to persist. This means qualifying alternative suppliers in different geographies, contracting with multiple freight forwarders and carriers, and maintaining relationships with both ocean and air freight providers even when ocean rates are temporarily favorable. The cost premium for diversification is justified by the reduced exposure to concentrated risk.
Third, organizations must invest in supply chain visibility and sensing technologies that enable faster response to emerging disruptions. Real-time tracking of shipments, predictive analytics for port congestion, and supplier performance monitoring allow companies to make more informed decisions about inventory positioning and routing. In an environment of sustained uncertainty, information asymmetry becomes a competitive disadvantage; companies with superior visibility can react faster and preserve service levels.
Looking Ahead: A New Operating Model
The Maersk survey suggests that supply chain professionals should prepare for a structurally different operating environment through 2026. Rather than viewing the next two years as a transition back to pre-pandemic normalcy, successful organizations will treat this period as a permanent baseline requiring ongoing investment in resilience, redundancy, and flexibility. Companies that embed these changes into their operating model now—rather than fighting against them—will emerge as competitive winners when disruption intensity eventually moderates.
The implications extend beyond logistics and procurement into broader strategic planning. Capital allocation decisions, target customer segments, and product mix strategies should all factor in the reality of extended supply chain volatility. Businesses dependent on complex global supply chains may need to reconsider market positioning or product portfolio mix; competitors with simpler, more resilient supply chains could gain market share. For supply chain leaders, the next two years represent both a challenge and an opportunity to reshape organizational capabilities and competitive advantage around resilience and flexibility.
Source: Maersk
Frequently Asked Questions
What This Means for Your Supply Chain
What if port congestion reduces container throughput by 15-20% for the next 24 months?
Simulate the impact of sustained port capacity constraints reducing inbound container volumes by 15-20% across major hubs over a 24-month horizon. Model the effect on inbound lead times, safety stock requirements, and inventory carrying costs across product categories and regions.
Run this scenarioWhat if we increase safety stock by 20-30% to buffer persistent disruptions?
Model the financial and operational impact of raising safety stock levels by 20-30% across the supply chain to absorb two years of continued volatility. Calculate inventory carrying cost increase, working capital impact, and service level improvement versus baseline operations.
Run this scenarioWhat if we shift 25% of ocean freight volume to air freight to mitigate delay risk?
Evaluate the cost-benefit of redirecting 25% of non-urgent ocean freight to air freight for critical categories (electronics, pharma, time-sensitive goods) over 24 months. Model transportation cost impact, service level improvement, and carbon footprint implications.
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