Air Cargo Rates Could Jump 15% in 2026 Amid Iran Conflict

A renewed conflict between Iran and the United States is forcing a structural reassessment of 2026 air cargo pricing, with freight rate benchmarking firm Xeneta revising its forecast from a 5-10% decline to a 5-15% increase. The resumption of hostilities has taken approximately 12% of global air freight capacity offline through Middle East airspace and airport closures, flight cancellations, and mandatory rerouting, partially reversing supply gains achieved earlier in the year. The rate pressure reflects a clash of two competing market forces. On the demand side, semiconductor and AI hardware shipments continue to surge, AI represents roughly 10% of total air cargo volume, driving year-over-year growth to 7% in June, well ahead of the original forecast.

Simultaneously, e-commerce growth, the traditional pillar of air freight expansion, has stalled following new duty regulations in the US and EU that eliminated de minimis exemptions. These cross-currents mean that while overall air cargo demand remains robust, supply constraints from geopolitical disruption are creating the pricing environment for sustained rate elevation through 2026. For supply chain professionals, this signals a fundamental shift in air freight economics. The industry can no longer rely on e-commerce volume to drive growth; instead, semiconductor and technology supply chains, concentrated heavily on trans-Pacific routes, are becoming the primary demand anchor.

Companies dependent on Asian electronics sourcing should prepare for persistent air freight cost premiums and consider longer lead times as capacity remains constrained. Strategic decisions around supplier diversification, mode substitution, and inventory positioning are now urgent.