What does it mean when freight rates rise but shipment volumes are weak?

This divergence typically signals carrier capacity constraints, seasonal rate adjustments, or carriers testing pricing discipline despite softening demand. The Cass Freight Index's March data suggests carriers may be maintaining rates to preserve margin or capacity rather than responding to demand surges. Supply chain teams should treat this as a potential leading indicator—rates may soften if volumes continue declining.

How reliable is the Cass Freight Index as a predictor of future freight costs?

The Cass Index is widely regarded as one of the most timely freight market indicators, capturing real-time transaction data. March's mixed signals—strong rates despite weaker shipments—often precede broader market corrections within 4-8 weeks, making it valuable for quarterly planning cycles.

Should shippers lock in freight contracts now given March's rate gains?

The answer depends on your specific lanes, volumes, and contract terms. March data suggests mixed market conditions; if shipment weakness persists, rate pressure may ease in subsequent months. Consider: (1) negotiating shorter-term contracts with rate caps, (2) consolidating shipments to improve leverage, (3) evaluating intermodal or mode-shift opportunities to hedge carrier rate risk.

What industries are most affected by these freight rate trends?

Retail, automotive, consumer goods, and manufacturing are typically most exposed to trucking rate volatility, as they rely heavily on LTL and truckload services. E-commerce and just-in-time inventory models amplify sensitivity to rate changes. Industries with fixed logistics budgets should prioritize demand planning adjustments to offset margin compression.

What should supply chain teams monitor in April and May to understand market direction?

Key metrics include: (1) Cass shipment volumes—whether they stabilize or deteriorate further, (2) carrier pricing announcements and capacity utilization rates, (3) seasonal demand patterns in retail and manufacturing, (4) fuel costs and driver availability, and (5) shipper mode-shift behavior (shifts toward rail, intermodal, or consolidation). These indicators together will clarify whether March's rate strength is sustainable.

Shipping & Freight

Moderate

Cass Freight Index: Strong Rate Gains in March Despite Shipment Weakness

May 25, 2026

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The signal

The Cass Freight Index released its March performance data, revealing a **paradoxical market condition** where freight rates posted strong gains even as shipment volumes showed weakness or mixed performance. This divergence signals underlying supply-demand imbalances in the trucking market, with carriers maintaining pricing power despite softening demand signals. For supply chain professionals, this represents a critical inflection point: rising costs are not driven by demand strength but rather by constrained carrier capacity or seasonal adjustments, suggesting the pricing environment may not be sustainable if shipment volumes continue to weaken. The tension between rate strength and shipment trends has important implications for logistics planning.

When rates rise absent demand growth, it typically indicates either seasonal normalization, capacity constraints, or carriers testing pricing limits before potential consolidation. This mixed signal requires supply chain teams to reassess their transportation strategies—locking in contracts, optimizing shipment consolidation, and evaluating mode shifts may all be warranted. The Cass Index, as a leading real-time freight indicator, provides crucial early-warning data that often precedes broader market shifts, making March's results especially relevant for Q2 planning cycles. Looking ahead, supply chain professionals should monitor whether this rate-volume divergence persists or normalizes.

If rates remain elevated while shipments weaken further, it could signal either disciplined carrier pricing or demand destruction in key verticals. Conversely, if shipment volumes recover sharply, current rates may be sustainable. Either scenario demands proactive engagement with carriers, freight brokers, and logistics partners to ensure cost structures remain competitive and service levels stay predictable.

Frequently Asked Questions

What This Means for Your Supply Chain

Simulation Suggestion

this month

What if freight rates continue rising 5-10% monthly while shipment volumes decline?

Model a scenario where LTL and truckload rates increase 5-10% per month over the next three months while shipment volumes (measured by Cass Index) decline 2-5% monthly. Assess cost impact across primary shipping lanes (e.g., California-Texas, Midwest corridors) and evaluate mode-shift opportunities to rail or intermodal.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

this month

What if carrier capacity tightens further, forcing mode consolidation or intermodal shifts?

Assume carrier capacity utilization increases 10-15% due to seasonal demand or supply constraints, forcing shippers to shift 20-30% of LTL volume to consolidated truckload or intermodal. Model cost and service level impacts, including potential 1-3 day transit time extensions for intermodal versus dedicated truck.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

strategic

What if shipment volumes recover sharply but rates plateau or decline?

Model a demand recovery scenario where Cass shipment volumes increase 8-12% month-over-month (seasonal normalization or economic uptick) while freight rates flatten or decline 2-3% as carrier utilization improves and pricing power eases. Assess inventory and capacity planning adjustments needed to capture volume growth without margin erosion.

Run this scenario

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