Why are retailers suddenly pulling back on customer pick-up arrangements?

Retailers use CPU programs during soft freight markets to capture transportation arbitrage—leveraging their consolidated scale to negotiate lower rates than manufacturers can achieve independently. However, as capacity tightens and contract tender rejection rates climb, the economic advantage disappears. Spot rates are compressing toward contract rates (currently -$0.22/mile spread, down from -$0.36/mile), eliminating the margin that made retailer-managed transportation profitable. When this spread reaches zero, retailers systematically suspend CPU programs, returning procurement responsibility to manufacturers.

What are the actual cost impacts for different-sized shippers?

According to FreightWaves SONAR analysis, weekly incremental freight rate increases range from $8,000-$24,000 for small shippers ($150M revenue) to $260,000-$900,000 for mega-shippers ($8B revenue). For a mid-size CPG shipper ($500M revenue) receiving 35-55 returned loads weekly, the combined burden—including linehaul rates, administrative labor, broker premiums, and accessorials—reaches $15,188-$47,250 weekly, translating to $790,000-$2.46 million annualized.

What early warning signals predict CPU rollbacks?

FreightWaves SONAR indices provide actionable signals: (1) Contract Tender Rejection Index (STRI.USA) climbing above 10.87% six-month average indicates 'Active Reversal' phase; (2) Spot-to-Contract Rate Spread (Rates.USA) approaching zero; (3) Tender Volume Index (STVI.USA) surging above average, confirming returned CPU volume entering TMS platforms; (4) All-In Spot Costs (NTI.USA) premium expanding above $2.65/mile average. When the spread crosses zero, broad suspensions typically follow within weeks.

Which geographic regions face the highest pressure first?

National indices show the reversal is already underway, but regional pockets show different timelines. Chicago's Outbound Tender Rejection Index (STRI.CHI) sits at 10.57%, but the Tender Volume Index (STVI.CHI) at 232.46 remains below its 6-month average of 255.16, indicating Midwest corridors are lagging nationally but represent 'the next major wave of local tightening.' High-cost corridors and seasonal lanes are being suspended first.

How should manufacturers prepare for broader CPU rollbacks?

Supply chain teams should: (1) develop contingency contracted carrier networks before spreads cross zero; (2) use SONAR indices to predict rollbacks weeks in advance rather than reacting at dock doors; (3) model full cost-stack impacts across all SKUs and lanes to update procurement budgets; (4) re-negotiate multi-year contracts to build carrier relationship resilience; (5) implement actionable signal sequencing to track tender rejection, volume, and rate trends in real-time.

Procurement

High Impact

CPU Rollbacks Hit CPG Shippers With $790K-$2.46M Annual Cost Impact

May 27, 2026

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The signal

As freight markets transition from oversupply to capacity constraints, major retailers are systematically canceling customer pick-up (CPU) programs that previously allowed them to capture arbitrage value through lower transportation rates. This sudden reversal is forcing CPG manufacturers to reabsorb 20-45% of outbound truckload volume, with immediate cost impacts ranging from $8,000-$24,000 weekly for small shippers to $260,000-$900,000 weekly for mega-shippers. 46 million.

22/mile. When this spread crosses zero, broad CPU suspensions typically follow within weeks. 4% above its six-month average, confirming that CPU volume is already flooding shipper transportation management systems as newly tendered outbound freight.

This transition represents a structural shift in procurement responsibility allocation during freight cycle recovery. Supply chain professionals must act now to develop contingency carrier networks, re-negotiate contract terms, and model procurement budget impacts before CPU rollbacks accelerate across regional corridors.

#customer-pickup-reversal

#freight-market-tightening

#transportation-cost-spike

#cpg-shippers

#carrier-capacity

#contract-tender-rejection

#freight-cycle-analysis

#procurement-budget-pressure

#spot-market-premium

#supply-chain-cost

Frequently Asked Questions

What This Means for Your Supply Chain

Simulation Suggestion

immediate

What if the spot-to-contract rate spread crosses zero this month?

Simulate the scenario where Rates.USA spot-to-contract spread moves from -$0.22/mile to $0.00/mile or positive, triggering broad CPU suspensions across all major retailers. Calculate cumulative weekly cost burden for a $500M-revenue CPG shipper, accounting for linehaul premiums, administrative overhead, broker fees, and carrier accessorials. Assess impact on quarterly procurement budget.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

this month

What if contract tender rejection rates reach 15% nationally?

Model the scenario where the national Contract Tender Rejection Index (STRI.USA) increases from current 13.16% to 15%, indicating severe carrier capacity constraints and accelerated CPU rollback timelines. Simulate impact on procurement costs, required safety stock levels, and service level targets for a mid-size CPG shipper with 35-55 weekly returned loads.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

this week

What if Midwest CPU volume returns surge 15% faster than projected?

Simulate accelerated CPU rollbacks in Midwest corridors (Chicago, St. Louis, Kansas City), where regional STVI.CHI currently lags national averages but is approaching a 'major wave of local tightening.' Model a 15% faster volume surge than current trajectory, calculating impact on carrier contracting, warehouse dock capacity utilization, and transportation budget for regional distribution networks.

Run this scenario

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The signal

Frequently Asked Questions

What This Means for Your Supply Chain

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