Gulf Carriers Rebuild Networks as Air Freight Rates Hold Firm

Global air cargo markets are entering a stabilization phase as Gulf-based carriers rapidly restore networks disrupted by US-Iran tensions, signaling a structural shift in capacity recovery. However, the anticipated rate relief has failed to materialize—despite easing geopolitical conditions and falling fuel costs, freight rates remain elevated. WorldACD data for mid-June shows chargeable weight gains of just 1% week-on-week, with rates and available capacity essentially flat, suggesting that supply-demand rebalancing is slower than many logistics professionals expected.

This dynamic presents a paradox for shippers: capacity is returning to the market, yet pricing power remains with carriers. The disconnect likely reflects lingering uncertainty around geopolitical stability, residual network fragmentation, and the lag time required for carriers to fully optimize their operations following disruptions. For procurement and logistics teams, this environment requires a recalibration of forecasting models—the traditional relationship between capacity expansion and rate compression may be temporarily broken.

The implications are significant for Q3 planning. Supply chain professionals should anticipate that rate relief, if it comes, will be gradual rather than dramatic. Strategic shippers may need to lock in capacity now rather than waiting for lower rates, while others might benefit from tactical spot-market opportunities as carriers work to fill newly restored routes.