Iran Sanctions Impact Duration Key to Global Oil Supply Chain Risk
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The signal
Morgan Stanley's analysis underscores a critical dimension for supply chain professionals: the **duration** of geopolitical supply shocks—not just their magnitude—determines long-term market impact. Iran-related oil supply constraints represent a structural risk to global energy logistics, with implications cascading across manufacturing, aviation, and petrochemicals sectors worldwide.
The key insight is that temporary disruptions prompt tactical workarounds (inventory builds, route diversification), while sustained restrictions force permanent supply chain reconfiguration. Companies sourcing energy-dependent inputs or operating in fuel-sensitive industries must distinguish between short-duration price spikes and multi-quarter availability constraints, as each demands fundamentally different mitigation strategies.
Supply chain leaders should model scenario outcomes based on resolution timelines rather than treating geopolitical events as binary on/off switches. This analytical shift—from incident response to duration-weighted risk—reflects evolving market sophistication and should inform procurement planning, carrier selection, and hedging policies across global operations.
Frequently Asked Questions
What This Means for Your Supply Chain
What if Iran oil disruptions persist for 6+ months?
Simulate sustained 15-25% reduction in Iran oil export availability across a 6-month to 12-month horizon. Model impact on refinery feedstock sourcing, energy costs for manufacturing, and jet fuel availability for aviation logistics. Track cascading effects on petrochemical pricing and manufacturing input costs globally.
Run this scenarioWhat if energy costs rise 12-18% and persist for 3+ months?
Model sustained energy cost inflation across logistics operations: fuel surcharges, manufacturing input costs, and cold-chain operations. Simulate impact on service levels if carriers implement fuel-based route optimizations or capacity constraints. Calculate margin pressure across customer base and identify which product lines become unprofitable.
Run this scenarioWhat if alternative refineries reduce capacity allocation to your sourcing region?
Simulate scenario where non-Iran refineries prioritize regional markets, reducing feedstock available to your supply regions. Model impact on refinery selection flexibility, lead time extensions, and cost premiums for alternative suppliers. Evaluate sourcing diversification benefits across Middle East, Asia-Pacific, and Atlantic Basin refineries.
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