Lean Inventories Meet Tight Trucking Capacity as Imports Stay Quiet

S. remain significantly below historical levels, sitting at 1,715 TEUs on the Inbound Ocean TEUs Volume Index—well below the 2,692 peak reached in June 2021. However, subdued import demand masks a more critical emerging challenge: shippers have shifted to lean, just-in-time inventory practices following tariff uncertainty in late 2025, leaving warehouses with minimal buffer capacity. Simultaneously, the trucking market is exiting one of its longest downturns in years with capacity quietly eroding over three years, creating a structural mismatch between lean supply chains and limited transportation flexibility.

This convergence poses significant operational risk as the traditional peak import season (July-August 2026) approaches. When demand does spike, the market will face a constrained trucking fleet ill-equipped to absorb sudden volume increases. The rejection rates on electronic freight tenders remain elevated despite tender volumes similar to historical levels, signaling that available capacity is tighter than surface-level metrics suggest. Intermodal transportation, typically used for transcontinental freight during peak season, may lose its cost and schedule advantages as transit times lengthen due to insufficient truck capacity for backhauls and final-mile delivery.

Supply chain professionals face a dual dilemma: maintaining lean inventories to manage costs while navigating a market where transportation service reliability is deteriorating. Shippers must reassess their demand forecasting models, build contingency capacity agreements with carriers, and consider strategic pre-positioning of inventory to buffer against potential service disruptions during peak season. The structural capacity deficit suggests this is not a temporary market tightening but rather a new operating environment requiring proactive supply chain redesign.