Maersk Raises 2026 Guidance as Middle East Crisis Boosts Rates

A.P. Moller–Maersk has sharply upgraded its 2026 financial guidance, now forecasting underlying EBITDA of $8–10 billion versus the prior $4.5–7 billion range, a dramatic pivot driven by robust container demand from Asia and sustained spot market rate increases. The Copenhagen-based carrier expects underlying EBIT of $2–4 billion (versus a projected loss of $1–1.5 billion), narrowed negative free cash flow to $1.5 billion from $3 billion, and raised its global container market volume growth outlook to 4% from 2–4%. Two primary drivers are fueling this windfall: geopolitical disruption in the Persian Gulf following February's Iran-US conflict, which closed the Strait of Hormuz and trapped thousands of vessels, and shipper frontloading driven by tariff fears and anticipated price increases from Asian manufacturers.

For supply chain professionals, this guidance revision signals a structural shift in near-term ocean freight economics. While the Middle East crisis is acute, the tariff-driven frontloading reflects broader strategic uncertainty that is reshaping shipment timing and carrier utilization. Maersk's inability to rapidly implement emergency fuel surcharges, rejected three times by the US Federal Maritime Commission, highlights regulatory friction that carriers now must factor into crisis response planning. The combination of constrained capacity, elevated rates, and demand surges creates both opportunities and risks: shippers who locked in space early may secure cost advantages, while late movers face capacity scarcity and premium pricing.

Looking forward, this performance uplift is likely temporary unless geopolitical tensions persist or trade protectionism accelerates. Supply chain leaders should expect carriers to maintain elevated pricing discipline and may see capacity investments accelerate if demand forecasts hold. The article underscores how macroeconomic uncertainty (tariffs, geopolitics) can instantly rebalance carrier profitability, a reminder that ocean freight procurement strategy must remain dynamic and scenario-aware.