Mexico Cargo Theft Falls, but Trucker Deaths Rise Sharply

Mexico's cargo theft problem is paradoxically improving and worsening simultaneously. Official statistics show a 21% decline in cargo theft investigations during the first five months of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025—a positive trend that extends a downward trajectory since 2019. However, this headline improvement masks a darker reality: criminal organizations are abandoning traditional robbery tactics in favor of increasingly lethal violence. At least 14 commercial truck drivers have been killed in highway attacks so far this year, with some regions reporting far higher casualty rates.

The shift toward armed aggression represents a structural change in how criminal networks operate, with organized groups now using assault rifles to immediately stop vehicles rather than waiting for drivers to voluntarily halt. Key freight corridors—particularly the State of Mexico, the Veracruz-Puebla corridor, and routes through Guanajuato—remain dangerous, with the stretch between Cumbres de Maltrata and Esperanza identified as the country's most hazardous segment. Nearly 70% of Port of Veracruz cargo moves through this corridor, forcing thousands of trucks to traverse high-risk zones daily. For supply chain professionals, this development creates a dual challenge: while statistical security improvements might suggest de-risking operations, the reality demands heightened contingency planning and potentially costlier logistics investments.

Companies must now factor in not just cargo loss probability but driver safety liabilities, security convoy expenses, and potential route alterations. The Mexican government's expansion of National Guard authority and support for secure parking infrastructure offers some mitigation, but industry leaders acknowledge that sustained intelligence operations against criminal networks will be necessary before operations fully normalize.