Why are container rates still climbing if the conflict has ended and the Strait of Hormuz is reopening?

Rate increases are driven by multiple factors independent of the immediate geopolitical crisis. Importers are frontloading shipments ahead of July tariff deadlines and manufacturer price hikes. Additionally, fuel surcharges remain elevated—bunker prices are down 25% from March highs but still well above pre-war levels, according to Freightos research. Carriers are also exercising pricing discipline, with targets for $1,000–$3,000 per FEU increases in July, capitalizing on demand while it remains strong.

What are emergency fuel surcharges, and why are shippers potentially paying twice for fuel cost increases?

Emergency fuel surcharges are temporary fees layered on top of contractual adjustment mechanisms (CAFs) that shipping lines implement during periods of volatile or elevated fuel costs. During the crisis, carriers imposed both CAFs and emergency surcharges simultaneously. Analysts have warned that shippers may be charged for fuel cost increases through multiple mechanisms, effectively double-billing. As bunker prices stabilize, shippers should audit invoices and negotiate removal of redundant surcharges.

What specific rate increases should importers expect by trade lane?

According to the Freightos Baltic Index, current rates and recent surges are: Trans-Pacific West Coast at $5,700+ per FEU (up 19%), with daily rates exceeding $6,000; U.S. East Coast at $7,400+ (up 13%), with daily rates above $8,000 and above the 2025 peak season high; Asia-Europe at $4,700+ per FEU (up 13%); and Mediterranean at $6,300+ per FEU (up 16%). Carriers are signaling $1,000–$3,000 per FEU increases for July, though resistance may intensify if demand peaks.

How severely was shipping disrupted at the Strait of Hormuz during the crisis?

Daily transits collapsed from pre-conflict levels of 100–130 vessels per day to single- or low-double-digit crossings during peak disruption, representing a decline to as low as 5–10% of normal levels. Hundreds of vessels, including major container ships like the 16,000-TEU HMM Daon, were stranded in the Persian Gulf. Recovery is underway but reflects the critical dependency of global trade on this single chokepoint.

How have bunker (fuel) prices and aviation fuel responded to the conflict resolution?

Bunker prices have declined 25% from March highs and 12% since early June, while jet fuel is down more than 40% from peak levels, according to Freightos research chief Judah Levine. However, both remain well above pre-war baselines, meaning fuel cost relief is only partial. This partial recovery explains why emergency surcharges remain in place despite easing commodity costs.

Shipping & Freight

High Impact

Ocean Rates Surge as Shipping Chaos Persists Post-Conflict

Jun 23, 2026

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The signal

-Iran hostilities has not brought relief to global container shipping markets. While the Strait of Hormuz is reopening and stranded vessels are beginning to transit out, ocean freight rates have surged sharply across all major trade lanes—Trans-Pacific West Coast rates jumped 19% to $5,700+ per FEU, East Coast rates hit $7,400+ (with daily rates exceeding $8,000), and Asia-Europe routes climbed 13%. These increases reflect a convergence of pressures: importers are frontloading shipments to beat anticipated July tariff increases and manufacturer price hikes, emergency fuel surcharges remain elevated despite bunker prices easing from March peaks, and carrier discipline is holding as they target an additional $1,000–$3,000 per FEU for July. For supply chain professionals, this moment represents a critical juncture.

The geopolitical shock has exposed the fragility of concentrated chokepoints; 100–130 daily transits collapsed to single digits during peak disruption. Even as normalcy returns, structural demand drivers—tariff deadlines, seasonal peak season dynamics, and aggressive carrier pricing strategies—are sustaining upward rate pressure. Shippers face dual risks: overpaying through stacked fuel surcharges while simultaneously racing to secure vessel space ahead of July deadlines. The implications extend beyond immediate cost management.

This episode underscores the need for scenario planning, diversified routing strategies, and deeper visibility into surcharge mechanisms. Organizations that can distinguish between temporary geopolitical disruptions and structural market shifts will be better positioned to negotiate terms and optimize freight spend as rates stabilize.

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What This Means for Your Supply Chain

Simulation Suggestion

immediate

What if tariff deadlines push frontloading demand beyond vessel capacity?

Simulate a scenario where importers continue to accelerate shipments ahead of July tariff increases, driving demand to exceed available container and vessel capacity on Trans-Pacific and Transatlantic routes. Model the impact on transit times, spot rates, and shipper ability to secure space at contractual rates.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

this week

What if carriers successfully implement $2,000–$3,000 per FEU July rate increases?

Simulate the full implementation of planned July carrier rate increases across all major trade lanes. Calculate cumulative cost impact for typical importers with monthly container volumes of 100–500 FEUs, and model customer price pass-through feasibility.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

strategic

What if Strait of Hormuz disruption recurs, restricting tanker and container transits again?

Simulate a renewed geopolitical incident that again blocks or severely restricts the Strait of Hormuz, returning daily transits to 5–10% of normal levels for 2–4 weeks. Model rerouting delays, inventory buildup at Persian Gulf ports, and alternative routing via Suez Canal or around Africa.

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