Ocean Shipping Rates Face 4-Week Climb Despite Iran Ceasefire

Despite recent geopolitical easing through a US-Iran ceasefire agreement, the ocean shipping market continues to face structural headwinds that will keep rates elevated through at least mid-summer. According to Xeneta data, spot rates are anticipated to rise further over the next four weeks, with vessel utilization remaining exceptionally high—many ships are already booked solid through July. This disconnect between political de-escalation and market fundamentals reveals that shipping recovery is driven more by capacity constraints and demand imbalances than by geopolitical risk premiums alone.

For supply chain professionals, this means that the anticipated relief from improved US-Iran relations will not translate into immediate cost relief on ocean freight. Companies relying on container shipping for H2 2024 inventory replenishment should lock in capacity commitments now rather than wait for rates to normalize, as spot market volatility will likely persist. The four-week rate climb suggests that seasonal summer demand, combined with vessel positioning challenges, will keep the market tight even as geopolitical uncertainty fades.

The broader implication is that shippers should adopt a dual-track strategy: maintain forward contracts for baseline volumes while preserving flexibility for opportunistic spot purchases only after July when vessel slack capacity may finally materialize. Waiting for perfect market conditions risks both higher-than-planned freight bills and capacity shortages during the critical back-to-school and holiday season buildup.