Record Logistics Costs Squeeze Vietnam's Export Competitiveness

Vietnam's export sector is experiencing unprecedented pressure from surging logistics and transportation costs, which have reached record levels and are directly eroding profit margins for manufacturers and traders. This cost spike affects a diverse range of export-dependent industries including electronics, textiles, footwear, and agricultural goods—sectors critical to Vietnam's economy and global supply chains. The pressure stems from elevated ocean freight rates, port congestion, fuel surcharges, and last-mile delivery expenses that have compounded since 2021-2022 and show signs of structural elevation rather than cyclical relief. For supply chain professionals, this development signals a critical reassessment period for Vietnam-centric sourcing strategies.

Companies that have built cost-competitive models dependent on low Vietnamese logistics have lost a key competitive advantage. The situation creates a bifurcated market: premium exporters with pricing power can absorb costs; smaller and mid-market suppliers face margin compression and potential order losses. This is particularly acute for perishables, time-sensitive goods, and bulk commodities where logistics represent 15-40% of landed cost. The structural nature of these cost increases—driven by global shipping capacity constraints, bunker fuel pricing, port infrastructure saturation, and labor shortages—suggests that Vietnam-based exporters cannot rely on cost normalization in the near term.

Strategic responses include supply chain localization, nearshoring partnerships, modal shifts, consolidation strategies, and demand-pull models that pass through costs to customers. Enterprises should model scenarios where Vietnam's cost advantage erodes by 10-25% over the next 12-24 months.