TD Cowen Index Shows Persistent Freight Rate Pressure

The TD Cowen/AFS Index is signaling sustained pricing pressure across multiple freight segments—truckload, less-than-truckload (LTL), and parcel services. This index-based analysis indicates that despite recent volatility in freight markets, shippers continue facing headwinds on negotiating rates downward, suggesting carriers are maintaining pricing discipline and capacity remains relatively constrained across modes. For supply chain professionals, persistent price pressure means budget forecasts for transportation will need conservative assumptions around rate declines.

Rather than expecting significant relief from elevated 2023-2024 rates, logistics teams should model for flat or modestly higher freight costs through the current cycle. This has direct implications for cost management strategies, particularly for companies with exposure to seasonal peaks where capacity tightens further. The breadth of the index—covering truckload, LTL, and parcel simultaneously—suggests the pressure is systemic rather than isolated to one mode or carrier segment.

Supply chain leaders should evaluate mode optimization, consolidation strategies, and network redesign as tactical levers to offset persistent freight inflation rather than banking on near-term spot market relief.