US-China Trade War Tariff Avoidance: Key Lessons for Supply Chains

A new CEPR research report examines tariff avoidance behaviors and import measurement dynamics that emerged during the first US-China trade war. The analysis provides critical lessons for supply chain professionals managing tariff exposure and regulatory compliance in an increasingly protectionist trade environment. Understanding how companies successfully navigated (or failed to navigate) tariff structures during this period offers actionable insights for future trade disruptions and policy uncertainty.

The research highlights the gap between tariff policy intent and actual import behavior, revealing that companies employed various strategies to minimize tariff impact—from product reclassification to sourcing diversification and transshipment routing adjustments. These findings underscore how tariff regimes create unintended consequences across supply networks, forcing supply chain teams to become more sophisticated in trade compliance and alternative sourcing strategies. For supply chain professionals, this analysis reinforces the need for robust tariff scenario planning, real-time trade policy monitoring, and flexible supplier diversification.

As geopolitical tensions and protectionist policies persist globally, the ability to measure, predict, and adapt to tariff impacts has become a core competitive capability rather than a peripheral compliance function.