US Forwarders Face Volume Drop Amid Rising Tariff Complexity

US freight forwarders are experiencing a dual squeeze: falling shipment volumes paired with significantly heightened operational complexity driven by evolving tariff policies. This contraction reflects broader trade friction affecting air cargo demand while forcing forwarders to navigate increasingly intricate regulatory and compliance landscapes. The combination creates margin pressure and operational strain, particularly for mid-market and smaller forwarding operations lacking automated compliance infrastructure. The tariff environment has fundamentally altered shipper behavior.

Many importers are either delaying purchases, consolidating shipments to reduce frequency, or diversifying sourcing away from heavily-tariffed markets. Meanwhile, the compliance burden—including enhanced documentation, tariff classification verification, and duty calculation—has risen substantially without corresponding revenue uplift. This dynamic is pushing forwarders to reassess service offerings, invest in technology, and potentially shed lower-margin business segments. For supply chain professionals, this signals both immediate operational challenges and strategic inflection points.

Organizations must evaluate their tariff exposure, optimize classification strategies, and consider geographic sourcing alternatives. Forwarders, in particular, face decisions about resource allocation between maintaining volume and building capability for higher-complexity, higher-value services.