Air Cargo Rates Stabilize as Capacity Returns, Fuel Squeeze Persists

Global air cargo markets are entering a stabilization phase after weeks of volatile rate increases tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions. 73 per kg—the slowest growth since conflict onset—signaling that capacity recovery is beginning to moderate demand-driven pricing pressures. However, the narrative is far more nuanced than simple rate relief.

While additional aircraft tonnage is returning to key trade lanes, underlying fuel supply tightness is preventing a full market reset. Rates remain 40% above pre-conflict baselines, suggesting structural imbalances persist. This creates an asymmetric risk environment where capacity gains could be quickly overwhelmed if fuel availability tightens further or new disruptions emerge.

For supply chain professionals, this represents a critical planning inflection point. The 1% week-on-week growth rate suggests we may be past peak rate shock, but the persistence of elevated pricing—combined with fuel constraints—means air freight remains an expensive option. Shippers should reassess their modal mix, evaluate backhaul opportunities, and stress-test contingencies around fuel availability over the next 4-8 weeks to avoid being caught off-guard if the market reprices upward again.