Air Cargo Shippers Pause Tenders as Peak Rates Signal Decline

Air cargo shippers are adopting a cautious procurement posture, deliberately postponing new tender commitments and extending existing contracts rather than locking in fresh agreements at inflated rates. This shift in buyer behavior reflects growing confidence that the extraordinary rate spike triggered by Middle East geopolitical tensions may be moderating. 40 per kg—up 41% year-on-year—demonstrates persistent pricing elevation, yet the analyst commentary suggests market participants believe peak pricing has passed or is imminent.

This procurement hesitation represents a meaningful shift in shipper strategy and carries implications for carriers, freight forwarders, and rate-setting mechanisms across the air cargo industry. By delaying tenders, shippers are essentially placing bets on future rate compression while protecting themselves from over-committing at what they perceive as unsustainably high pricing levels. This creates a period of market uncertainty where carriers face potential capacity deployment challenges and revenue predictability issues.

For supply chain professionals, this signals a need to reassess air freight allocation strategies, revisit demand forecasting assumptions, and consider dynamic contract structures that allow flexibility as market conditions stabilize. Organizations that have locked in higher-rate contracts may face competitive disadvantages, while those maintaining flexibility position themselves to capitalize on anticipated rate normalization.