What does a -0.6% month-over-month decline in the TSI mean for freight rates?

A negative MoM reading typically reflects seasonal softening in freight demand and utilization rates. However, this does not necessarily translate to proportional rate decreases, as carriers may maintain pricing discipline based on fuel costs and equipment availability. The -0.6% MoM decline is moderate and consistent with December seasonality.

Why is the year-over-year growth of +0.4% significant despite the monthly decline?

The YoY positive growth indicates that December 2025 freight activity remained stronger than December 2024, suggesting the market has maintained resilience. This YoY stability is meaningful because it shows freight demand has not deteriorated structurally; the monthly dip is cyclical rather than indicative of broader contraction.

How should logistics companies use TSI data for capacity planning?

The TSI serves as a leading indicator for freight demand trends. Companies should use monthly TSI releases alongside their own demand forecasts and customer shipment pipelines to validate capacity allocation decisions. A sustained downward TSI trend would warrant equipment rationalization; conversely, upward momentum would justify capacity investments.

What sectors are most sensitive to TSI fluctuations?

Less-than-truckload (LTL), truckload, intermodal, and air freight services are most directly impacted by TSI movements. Retail, e-commerce, automotive, and consumer goods industries—which rely heavily on freight services—experience indirect effects through carrier capacity and pricing adjustments driven by TSI-correlated demand shifts.

Should the +0.4% YoY growth prompt increased capital investment in trucking?

While +0.4% YoY growth is positive, it is modest. Capital investment decisions should be based on forward guidance, customer contract growth, and longer-term TSI trends rather than a single month. A 3-6 month window of sustained positive YoY growth would be more actionable for significant capacity expansion decisions.

Demand Planning

Moderate

December 2025 Freight TSI Down 0.6% MoM, Up 0.4% YoY

Apr 23, 2026

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The signal

S. 4% growth. This mixed signal reflects the typical seasonal softness at year-end while suggesting underlying freight market resilience compared to the prior December.

For supply chain professionals, this data point underscores the importance of tracking leading indicators beyond single-month snapshots; the modest YoY gain indicates sustained baseline demand despite cyclical headwinds. The TSI, maintained by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, serves as a critical barometer for freight market health across trucking, intermodal, and air services. The December decline aligns with historical seasonal patterns when post-holiday demand fades and year-end inventory adjustments occur.

However, the positive year-over-year comparison suggests that freight markets have not experienced structural contraction compared to December 2024, signaling a steadier operating environment than some anticipated given macroeconomic uncertainty. Supply chain teams should interpret this data within the context of broader logistics trends: seasonal dips are normal, but the YoY stability indicates that capacity utilization and pricing may not be experiencing deflationary pressure. Organizations should continue monitoring forthcoming TSI releases and cross-referencing with fuel costs, equipment availability, and customer demand signals to validate whether the current equilibrium holds into Q1 2026.

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Simulation Suggestion

this month

What if freight demand continues declining into Q1 2026?

Simulate a scenario where the Freight Transportation Services Index declines 1-2% month-over-month for three consecutive months (January-March 2026) due to post-holiday demand normalization and potential economic slowdown. Model the impact on trucking asset utilization, LTL network density, and intermodal terminal throughput.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

this month

What if December's seasonality masks underlying Q1 strength?

Simulate a scenario where January 2026 freight demand rebounds 2-3% MoM as post-holiday inventory replenishment and Q1 manufacturing activity accelerate. Model the operational implications for equipment positioning, driver scheduling, and carrier capacity utilization rates.

Run this scenario

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