North American Transborder Freight Up 1.2% YoY in Dec 2025
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The signal
2% in December 2025 compared to December 2024, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. While this represents positive momentum, the modest growth rate suggests a measured recovery or stabilization in cross-border trade flows between the United States, Canada, and Mexico. This data point is significant for supply chain professionals as it indicates sustained demand for cross-border logistics services despite macroeconomic uncertainty.
For logistics operators and freight forwarders, this trend reinforces the importance of maintaining capacity and relationships on key North American trade lanes. The year-over-year comparison provides a baseline for understanding seasonal patterns and year-to-date performance. Supply chain managers should monitor whether this growth accelerates or plateaus in coming months, as transborder freight volumes often correlate with consumer demand, manufacturing activity, and just-in-time inventory practices.
2% growth, while positive, is relatively conservative and suggests that supply chain normalization is proceeding gradually. Organizations dependent on North American transborder routes should continue optimizing their network efficiency and capacity utilization, as incremental growth may persist longer than sharp recovery scenarios.
Frequently Asked Questions
What This Means for Your Supply Chain
What if transborder freight growth flattens or declines in 2026?
Model a scenario in which the 1.2% growth stalls or reverses due to trade policy uncertainty, macroeconomic headwinds, or inventory normalization. Assess impacts on carrier profitability, freight rate pressure, and supply chain professionals' network optimization strategies.
Run this scenarioWhat if transborder freight growth accelerates to 3% in Q1 2026?
Simulate a scenario where North American transborder freight volume growth increases from the reported 1.2% to 3% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026, driven by holiday season pull-forward demand and post-trade policy clarity. Assess impact on cross-border carrier capacity utilization, transportation costs, and lead time variability.
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