Why is the Strait of Hormuz critical for fertiliser supply?

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important maritime chokepoints, handling a major portion of phosphate and potash shipments from Middle Eastern and North African producers to Asian and global markets. Disruption here directly impacts fertiliser availability and prices globally.

What specific risks are projected for 2026?

The article identifies 2026 as a crisis year due to anticipated geopolitical tensions and potential restrictions on shipping through the strait. These could include sanctions, naval incidents, or deliberate interference with commerce, all of which would delay or redirect fertiliser shipments.

How should supply chain teams prepare for this risk?

Procurement and logistics teams should diversify fertiliser sourcing away from Middle Eastern suppliers, evaluate alternative supply routes (longer but safer), build strategic inventory reserves ahead of 2026, and establish long-term contracts with producers in less geopolitically volatile regions.

What industries and regions would be most affected?

Agricultural regions in Asia, Africa, and parts of South America that depend on imported fertiliser are most vulnerable. This includes India, Southeast Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and Brazil—regions where domestic production is insufficient and imports are critical for crop yields.

Are there alternative supply routes or sources?

Yes, though longer and more expensive. Alternative routes include sailing around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope, or sourcing from North American or South American producers. Regional producers in Asia and Africa could also be developed, though this requires significant investment and time.

Risk & Disruption

High Impact

Fertiliser Ships Face 2026 Strait of Hormuz Crisis

Jun 22, 2026

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The signal

The Strait of Hormuz represents a critical chokepoint for global fertiliser distribution, with projections indicating heightened disruption risks in 2026. This strait handles a significant portion of phosphate and potash shipments destined for agricultural markets across Asia, Africa, and beyond. Supply chain professionals face a structural challenge: over-reliance on a single maritime corridor for essential agricultural inputs creates systemic vulnerability to geopolitical tensions, accidents, or deliberate interference.

For logistics and procurement teams, the 2026 forecast signals the need for strategic mitigation. Companies dependent on fertiliser imports should evaluate alternative sourcing regions, diversify supplier bases away from Middle Eastern production centres, and consider forward contracting or strategic inventory buffers. The risk is not merely operational delay—it threatens food security and agricultural productivity globally, making this a high-priority item for supply chain planning and scenario analysis.

The broader implication is that commodity supply chains remain dangerously concentrated at geographic pinch points. Forward-thinking organisations will use this warning to audit their entire supply network for similar single-point-of-failure risks and begin building resilience through diversification and redundancy.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What This Means for Your Supply Chain

Simulation Suggestion

strategic

What if Hormuz fertiliser shipments are delayed 4-6 weeks in Q2 2026?

Simulate a scenario where 40% of scheduled fertiliser imports destined for Asia and Africa experience a 4-6 week delay due to Strait of Hormuz disruption in Q2 2026. Model the impact on inventory levels, planting seasons, and procurement costs if buyers attempt to source alternative supply.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

this month

What if fertiliser prices spike 30% due to supply scarcity?

Model a scenario where Hormuz disruption causes a 30% price spike in potash and phosphate commodities during Q2-Q3 2026. Evaluate impact on procurement budgets, customer pricing, and margin compression for agricultural retailers and manufacturers dependent on fertiliser inputs.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

strategic

What if your primary fertiliser supplier diverts shipments to higher-paying markets?

Simulate a scenario where a key fertiliser supplier redirects shipments originally destined for your region to markets offering premium prices during the 2026 disruption. Model the impact on inventory shortfall, alternative sourcing timelines, and operational adjustments needed to maintain service level.

Run this scenario

Go deeper:

Supply Chain Digital Twin: The 2026 Guide

How operators model end-to-end supply chains to see how tariffs, supplier shocks, and regulatory changes ripple across cost, service, risk, and time.

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