What does a 0.4% month-over-month increase in TSI tell us about freight market health?

A 0.4% month-over-month increase indicates modest, incremental growth in freight transportation services demand. This suggests a stable market without sharp demand spikes or collapses, typical of normal seasonal transitions. The smaller month-over-month gain compared to the year-over-year 0.7% may reflect seasonal normalization or carriers working through accumulated shipments from earlier periods.

How does the 0.7% year-over-year growth compare to historical trends?

A 0.7% year-over-year increase represents relatively moderate growth. This modest expansion suggests that freight demand is growing slowly compared to pre-pandemic or cyclical peak years. Supply chain professionals should interpret this as a period of steady-state operations without explosive growth pressures, which typically favors carriers and reduces leverage for shippers in rate negotiations.

Which freight segments does the TSI measure?

The Transportation Services Index measures the combined activity of trucking (including ltl and truckload), rail, intermodal, and air freight services. It aggregates shipping volumes, revenues, and utilization rates across these modes to provide a comprehensive view of freight market health in the United States.

What should procurement teams do based on these TSI readings?

With modest growth and stable market conditions, procurement teams should focus on lock-in pricing with reliable carriers while capacity remains available. The stable index suggests this is not a period of capacity crisis, making it optimal for negotiating multi-quarter or annual contracts without premium pricing for capacity guarantees.

What external factors could shift the TSI in coming months?

The TSI is sensitive to retail demand cycles (Q4 spike), economic slowdowns or recessions, fuel price volatility, carrier consolidation, driver availability, and regulatory changes. Supply chain professionals should monitor these leading indicators to anticipate directional shifts in the TSI, which typically lead operational planning by 4-6 weeks.

Demand Planning

Moderate

Freight TSI March 2026: Modest 0.4% MoM Growth Signals Steady Demand

May 14, 2026

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The signal

7%. This steady performance suggests a stable freight market environment without dramatic supply or demand shocks, though growth rates remain relatively muted compared to historical averages. For supply chain professionals, this metric serves as a key barometer of freight demand trends and overall logistics health.

The data reflects shipping volumes, freight rates, and carrier utilization rates across trucking, rail, and intermodal segments. 4%) may suggest seasonal normalization or market consolidation. These indices matter because they signal whether overall freight demand is strengthening or weakening, which informs capacity planning, carrier selection, and negotiation strategy for logistics procurement teams.

The relatively flat growth trajectory suggests competitive pricing pressures may persist and carrier capacity remains adequate to meet current demand levels, reducing urgency for capacity hoarding or long-term commitments.

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