Freight Volume Poised for Recovery After 40-Month Decline

S. freight market after nearly four years of consecutive year-over-year volume declines. 8% year-over-year increase in the back half of the year assuming normal seasonal patterns. This reversal matters significantly because it signals that shipper and carrier fundamentals may finally be stabilizing, even as structural capacity constraints continue to support elevated freight rates. The recovery is being driven primarily by supply-side dynamics rather than robust demand.

S. dollar are supporting freight demand, but the real driver of rate strength remains constrained truckload capacity. Regulatory enforcement intensified last year targeting non-compliant drivers, non-domiciled CDL holders, and questionable driver schools, effectively purging supply from the market. 9% year-over-year increases in truckload linehaul rates, the largest increase in nearly four years. For supply chain professionals, this represents a critical planning inflection.

While volume recovery is good news after a prolonged downturn, it arrives in an environment of genuine capacity scarcity. Publicly traded carriers are signaling potential double-digit rate increases through 2026 and 2027 as contract rates set earlier this year prove insufficient. Shippers should anticipate tighter carrier relationships, pressure on routing guides, and the need to secure capacity earlier in planning cycles. Strategic procurement teams should evaluate long-term carrier partnerships and capacity reservation strategies now, as spot market volatility and rate escalation are likely to persist throughout the remainder of the year.