U.S.-Mexico trade surges to $73B in Feb; border capacity tightens

2 billion in February 2026, reinforcing Mexico's position as the nation's top trading partner with 7% year-over-year growth. 9B), driven primarily by computers, automotive components, and electronics moving northbound. Port Laredo alone facilitated more than $29 billion in trade, underscoring Texas's critical role as the gateway for cross-border commerce. Despite strong demand, supply chain professionals face mounting operational headwinds.

Capacity constraints are intensifying across key trucking and intermodal corridors, while rising diesel prices, labor costs in Mexico, increased insurance premiums, and driver availability challenges are compressing margins. H. Robinson's assessment that "the defining challenge for shippers in Q2 is not demand but securing reliable capacity" signals a shift from volume concerns to execution risk—a critical distinction for logistics networks operating near saturation. The durability of these supply chains hinges on policy stability.

Industry groups including the National Retail Federation emphasize that maintaining USMCA's tariff-free framework and regulatory certainty is essential to preserve the integrated nature of North American manufacturing and retail supply chains. For supply chain professionals, this moment highlights both opportunity (sustained demand) and vulnerability (capacity constraints coupled with regulatory uncertainty), requiring strategic decisions on carrier partnerships, inventory positioning, and risk mitigation before seasonal demand peaks.