Why haven't ocean freight rates spiked in March despite seasonal demand?

According to the Freightos update from March 31, 2026, ocean rates have remained stable despite the typically busy spring season. This may reflect overcapacity on major trade lanes, delayed demand from importers, or carriers choosing to consolidate rate adjustments into April rather than implement them incrementally.

What should shippers do before the April rate increases?

Shippers should use the March stability window to negotiate forward contracts, lock in service agreements, or secure spot market bookings at current rates. Waiting until April increases materialize could result in significantly higher transportation costs. Early action is particularly important for companies with high volume commitments.

Are April rate increases certain?

Freightos signals that more increases are 'set for April,' indicating carrier intention, but external factors such as demand weakness, fuel price changes, or port disruptions could alter the timeline. Shippers should plan conservatively while monitoring carrier announcements and market signals for confirmation.

Which trade lanes are most likely to see April rate pressure?

While the Freightos update does not specify particular trade lanes, historically Asia-to-North America and Asia-to-Europe routes experience the strongest seasonal rate pressure in spring. These lanes typically see April increases first, so shippers with heavy exposure to these routes should prioritize early contracting.

How does this March-to-April pattern compare to historical norms?

Delaying rate increases from March to April is atypical; spring peaks usually drive March pricing power. This shift may indicate weakened shipper demand or carrier caution about market conditions. Supply chain teams should monitor whether this becomes a new pattern or reverts to traditional seasonal timing in future years.

Shipping & Freight

Moderate

Ocean Shipping Rates Hold Steady in March; April Increases Looming

May 26, 2026

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The signal

As of late March 2026, ocean freight rates have not yet experienced the anticipated seasonal spike that typically accompanies the spring peak shipping season. However, the Freightos market update indicates that carriers are positioning for additional rate increases starting in April, suggesting a delayed but still-pending adjustment to pricing. This represents a window of opportunity for shippers to assess their forward contracting strategies before rates move higher. For supply chain professionals, this timing is critical.

The absence of a March rate spike contradicts historical seasonal patterns, which typically see strong upward pressure as retailers and manufacturers rush to build inventory ahead of summer demand. The forecast of April increases suggests carriers are either consolidating their pricing adjustments or waiting for specific market conditions to justify rate hikes. Shippers caught without forward coverage in April could face significantly higher costs, making this an ideal moment to secure longer-term service contracts or spot market positions before the anticipated move. The broader implication is that the ocean shipping market remains volatile and subject to rapid repricing.

Supply chain teams should treat this update as a critical planning signal—not a guarantee of stability. Coordination between procurement, operations, and finance teams is essential to lock in favorable terms before the April window closes.

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#freight-market

#logistics-costs

#rate-forecast

Frequently Asked Questions

What This Means for Your Supply Chain

Simulation Suggestion

immediate

What if shippers lock in March rates now versus waiting for April clarity?

Compare the total cost of securing a 90-day forward contract at March 2026 rates versus deferring the decision and exposing 30 days of volume to April rate increases. Model both scenarios assuming the forecasted 10–15% April increase materializes, and calculate the break-even point at which early contracting becomes financially advantageous.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

this week

What if April ocean rates increase by 10–15% across major trade lanes?

Simulate the impact of ocean freight rate increases of 10–15% on a standard containerized shipment routing from Shanghai/Hong Kong to Los Angeles and Rotterdam, effective April 1, 2026. Model the cost delta for a typical monthly volume commitment and assess whether early March contracting at current rates would have been cost-neutral or cost-saving.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

this month

What if late-March spot market demand surge prevents rate increases until May?

Model a scenario where a surge in last-minute shipper bookings in late March absorbs available container capacity, potentially delaying the forecasted April rate increases to May. Assess how this would affect shippers who defer contracting decisions waiting for April clarity, and model the cost impact if rates do eventually rise in May instead.

Run this scenario

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The signal

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What This Means for Your Supply Chain

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