Shippers Overpaying for Fuel: How to Negotiate Away Duplicate Charges
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The signal
Following the escalation of the Iran conflict in February 2026, diesel fuel prices spiked 90% in three weeks, prompting ocean carriers to introduce Emergency Bunker Adjustment Factor (eBAF) surcharges alongside standard BAF mechanisms. This created a dual-charge scenario where shippers paid both immediate emergency fees and subsequent quarterly adjustments—effectively paying twice for the same fuel price increase. With benchmark bunker prices retreating from their March peak as ceasefire agreements ease supply concerns, Drewry Supply Chain Advisors warns that maintaining these emergency surcharges is increasingly unjustifiable and advises shippers to actively negotiate their removal.
The financial impact has been substantial: total fuel-related charges in Q2 2026 reached $798 per 40-ft container—nearly double the underlying BAF of $406—and peaked at $1,088 in Q3 2026 as standard BAF finally caught up to market reality. Hapag-Lloyd has already committed to withdrawing emergency surcharges once higher BAF takes effect in July, setting a precedent for industry alignment. However, not all carriers have made similar commitments, leaving shippers exposed to continued overpayment.
This situation highlights a critical vulnerability in ocean freight pricing: the lag between real-time market conditions and standardized adjustment formulas creates windows where carriers can justify multiple layers of cost recovery. Supply chain teams must now actively monitor surcharge structures, benchmark against carriers with transparent withdrawal timelines, and leverage improving market conditions to renegotiate contracts before structural pricing becomes entrenched.
Frequently Asked Questions
What This Means for Your Supply Chain
What if eBAF surcharges remain in place through Q4 2026?
Simulate the scenario where ocean carriers do not withdraw emergency bunker surcharges despite standard BAF reaching equilibrium with market prices. Model the total landed cost impact on east-west headhaul trades if shippers continue paying both mechanisms for an additional 6 months, and compare negotiated removal scenarios.
Run this scenarioWhat if major carriers adopt Hapag-Lloyd's eBAF withdrawal commitment?
Simulate the best-case scenario where Maersk, CMA CGM, MSC, and other top-4 carriers follow Hapag-Lloyd's lead and commit to removing emergency surcharges by July 2026. Model the cost savings across representative shipper portfolios on major trade lanes, and identify which shippers have the strongest negotiating leverage.
Run this scenarioWhat if fuel prices spike again due to escalating Middle East tensions?
Model the impact of a second fuel price shock scenario (50-75% spike) if geopolitical risks re-escalate in the Persian Gulf. Assess whether carriers would reintroduce eBAFs and how quickly standard BAF would adjust, along with the compounded cost impact on procurement plans and Q4 2026 budgets.
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