Southeast Asia Emerges as Air Cargo Star as Ecommerce Boom Ends

A fundamental structural shift is reshaping transpacific air freight markets. For the past three years, the ecommerce boom—driven by pandemic-era consumer behavior and peak season surges—fueled explosive air cargo demand. That era is ending.

According to Trade and Transport Group analysis, general cargo imports from Southeast Asia have now become the primary demand driver, filling capacity that was previously consumed by parcel and small-package shipments destined for US consumers. This transition reflects both a normalization of ecommerce growth rates and the emergence of Southeast Asia as a competitive manufacturing and export hub. With the US de minimis import threshold creating earlier constraints on ecommerce logistics, traditional general cargo—likely including electronics, textiles, machinery, and consumer durables—now commands premium air freight capacity on major transpacific lanes.

For supply chain professionals, this shift signals the need for recalibrated demand forecasting models, revised capacity contracts, and repositioned sourcing strategies. Teams managing transpacific air freight must reassess which cargo types command capacity during peak windows, while sourcing teams should evaluate Southeast Asian supplier reliability and service levels. The strategic implication is clear: air freight is stabilizing around a more diversified, supply-driven demand base rather than the volatile, consumption-driven patterns of recent years.