AI Data Centers Drive Air Cargo Peak—But Is the Boom Sustainable?

The explosive growth of artificial intelligence infrastructure has become a significant demand driver for air cargo, particularly on Asia-to-US routes where volumes have reached post-pandemic highs. This surge is filling capacity gaps created by the elimination of US de minimis exemptions, which previously allowed duty-free entry of low-value ecommerce shipments from China. However, industry experts are cautious about the sustainability of this demand boost, questioning whether the AI infrastructure build-out represents a structural market shift or a temporary phenomenon that could leave carriers and logistics providers overexposed when growth normalizes.

For supply chain professionals, this dynamic presents both opportunity and risk. On one hand, strong air cargo demand improves carrier utilization and may provide better rate stability in the near term. On the other hand, the cyclical nature of technology infrastructure investment creates uncertainty around long-term capacity planning and capital allocation decisions.

The underlying concern is that when AI data center construction phases out or slows, the air cargo market could face significant overcapacity without the ecommerce volume that previously sustained demand levels. The situation underscores a critical supply chain reality: demand forecasting must account for both structural and cyclical drivers. Organizations relying on current air cargo demand for sourcing or production planning should consider scenario-based planning that accounts for potential demand contraction, while also evaluating whether shifts in tariff policy create new sourcing opportunities or constraints.