US-Iran Conflict to Disrupt Q4FY26 Earnings; Recovery Takes 1-2 Months

A significant geopolitical escalation between the US and Iran poses material risks to supply chain operations and Q4 fiscal year 2026 earnings across multiple industries. The conflict is anticipated to disrupt shipping lanes, create logistics delays, and force companies to reroute cargo, with recovery timelines extending 1-2 months according to supply chain analysts. This represents a structural shock rather than a routine operational delay, affecting companies with exposure to Middle Eastern trade corridors, Iran-adjacent markets, and global supply networks reliant on efficient international commerce.

The earnings impact will likely manifest through increased transportation costs, expedited freight premiums, inventory write-downs for delayed shipments, and potential revenue loss from postponed deliveries. Manufacturing-heavy sectors—including automotive, electronics, and pharmaceuticals—face particular vulnerability due to their dependence on just-in-time supply chains and time-sensitive distribution windows. Beyond Q4FY26, this conflict signals broader systemic risks that supply chain leaders must address through scenario planning, supplier diversification, and enhanced geopolitical monitoring capabilities.

For supply chain professionals, this development underscores the necessity of building resilience into global networks. Organizations should stress-test their logistics pathways for Middle Eastern disruptions, establish alternative routing protocols, and communicate proactively with stakeholders about timeline adjustments. The 1-2 month restoration window suggests that reactive measures alone will prove insufficient; strategic investments in supply chain visibility and redundancy are now critical competitive differentiators.