Why are train speeds declining despite strong volume growth?

According to the article, major US railroads are experiencing 10-20 month speed lows as volumes surge 10% week-over-week. The primary constraints are crew staffing limitations and insufficient fleet capacity to handle unexpected demand. When railroads cannot scale personnel and equipment proportionally, network congestion causes trains to move more slowly through bottleneck sections.

Which regions or commodities are driving the intermodal volume increase?

The article notes that specific commodity segments are driving the growth, though detailed breakdowns by commodity are referenced through AAR figures discussed by Bill Stephens of Trains Magazine. The analysis identifies that growth is uneven across North America, with Canadian volumes declining even as US volumes surge 10%.

What operational risks should shippers anticipate?

The collision between high volume and low speed creates multiple risks: increased transit times, potential service level misses, equipment detention due to yard congestion, and potential rate increases as railroads manage capacity constraints. Shippers should expect longer dwell times and potentially higher accessorial charges.

Is this a temporary surge or a structural shift in rail freight?

The article describes this as a 'strong growth streak' driven by 'unexpected demand,' suggesting it may be temporary demand fluctuation rather than permanent structural change. However, if railroads cannot rapidly hire crew and acquire equipment, constrained capacity could persist for months, converting temporary demand into a chronic bottleneck.

How does US performance compare to Canadian rail freight?

The article highlights a 'stark contrast' between US and Canadian intermodal performance: US volumes are up 10% with network stress, while Canadian volumes are declining. This divergence suggests uneven demand recovery across North America and potential competitive shifts in modal selection and routing strategies.

Shipping & Freight

High Impact

US Rail Intermodal Volume Surges 10%, But Network Speeds Plummet

Jul 1, 2026

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The signal

US intermodal rail volume has experienced a robust 10% increase in recent weeks, reflecting strong demand for rail freight services across North American supply chains. However, this surge in volume is creating a critical operational bottleneck: major railroads are experiencing significant network slowdowns, with some recording train speeds at 10-20 month lows.

This performance divergence highlights a structural mismatch between rising freight demand and constrained railroad operational capacity. The growth is being driven by specific commodity segments, but railroads are struggling to scale crew staffing and maintain adequate fleet capacity to handle the unexpected demand surge.

Meanwhile, Canadian intermodal volumes are declining, creating a stark competitive and operational contrast across North America. This situation presents both immediate operational challenges and longer-term strategic concerns for shippers relying on rail for time-sensitive cargo.

#capacity-constraints

#supply-chain-disruption

#railroad-performance

#north-america-logistics

Frequently Asked Questions

What This Means for Your Supply Chain

Simulation Suggestion

this month

What if rail transit times increase by 15-25% due to sustained network congestion?

Model the impact of persistent train speed reductions (10-20 month lows as noted) translating into 15-25% longer transit times on existing rail intermodal shipments. Apply this delay across major US corridors and measure effects on customer service levels, inventory holding costs, and potential modal shifts to truck or air freight.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

this week

What if crew staffing shortages force 10-15% capacity reductions in key rail hubs?

Simulate the impact of railroads unable to hire sufficient crew to match volume growth, forcing 10-15% reductions in daily throughput at major intermodal terminals. Model competing demand for limited capacity slots and calculate potential rate increases, shipper queue times, and equipment detention costs.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

this month

What if shippers shift 20% of rail intermodal volume to trucking to avoid rail delays?

Model a modal shift scenario where 20% of intermodal volume migrates to over-the-road trucking due to rail speed degradation. Calculate resulting transportation cost impact, driver availability pressure, fuel surcharge effects, and lead time volatility across alternative modes.

Run this scenario

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Supply Chain Simulation: How It Works and How to Choose Software

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