AI Freight Boom Replaces E-commerce, Reshaping Global Logistics

Artificial intelligence goods, particularly semiconductors and data center equipment, have become the structural driver of international air freight, fundamentally altering logistics demand patterns and network strategies across the industry. According to a DHL and NYU Business School study, AI-related commodities accounted for 42% of trade growth by value in 2024 and surged to 76% in the first quarter of 2025. This represents a decisive shift away from e-commerce parcels, which dominated prior freight cycles but declined sharply after de minimis tariff exemptions were eliminated by U.S. regulators. The scale of this transition is profound and global. The International Air Transport Association reported that approximately 53% of air cargo value in the first half of 2025 originated from AI-related goods.

Without these imports, U.S. total imports would have declined by 10% according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Notably, Taiwan has eclipsed mainland China as the largest trading partner to the United States by import value, driven entirely by semiconductor shipments, even though container volumes from the island remain relatively limited. Major carriers including EVA Air, Korean Air, and Japan Airlines have added freighter capacity specifically to capture this demand, while integrators like FedEx and UPS are reorienting Asia-Pacific networks accordingly. Amazon's strategic partnership with Kuehne+Nagel underscores the centrality of AI logistics to e-commerce infrastructure expansion. However, supply chain professionals should calibrate expectations about broader domestic freight impacts.

Data center construction reached approximately $50 billion in 2024 but represents less than 2.5% of total U.S. construction activity. This concentration, combined with residential market weakness and persistent office space softness, means overall construction freight demand remains relatively flat rather than experiencing broad-based growth. Additionally, cargo security has emerged as a critical parallel concern, with high-value semiconductor theft and geopolitical risks through sanctioned nations and unauthorized foreign intermediaries creating new regulatory and operational challenges for forwarders and freight operators.