How much of global trade growth is driven by AI infrastructure demand?

According to the DHL Globalization Tracker, AI-enabling goods drove 42% of goods trade growth in 2025 and increased to 76% in the first quarter of 2026. This represents a structural shift in global logistics priorities, with semiconductors and data-transmission equipment becoming primary drivers of international flows.

Are tariffs significantly impacting global trade growth?

While US tariffs reached their highest levels in decades, their global impact has been limited. The US accounts for only 13% of world imports, and roughly half of those imports are exempt from tariff increases as of August 2026. Most countries secured alternative market access through new trade agreements rather than broad retaliation, limiting the drag on global trade.

What is the impact of the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure?

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted important trade routes, but effects remain concentrated on economies dependent on the strait. Saudi Arabia experienced a 37% decline in trade value, and the UAE saw a 7% decline in the first five months of 2026 versus 2025. Global impacts have been relatively contained.

Has the US-China trade decline significantly hurt global commerce?

No. US-China trade accounted for only 1.6% of world trade in the first five months of 2026, down from 3.5% at its 2015 peak. US-China investment flows are less than 1% of international business investment. Close US allies have largely maintained their relationships with China, limiting systemic global impact.

What is DHL's forecast for global trade growth through 2029?

DHL projects global goods trade will expand at an average annual rate of 3.4% through 2029, substantially faster than the 2.7% rate recorded over the previous decade. This growth is supported primarily by continued AI infrastructure buildout and technology component demand.

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The signal

Global goods trade is experiencing its strongest growth in 15 years, driven primarily by massive demand for AI infrastructure components like semiconductors and data-transmission equipment. According to DHL's latest Globalization Tracker, AI-enabling goods drove 76% of trade growth in the first quarter of 2026, substantially outweighing headwinds from elevated tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and weakened US-China trade relationships. This structural shift has profound implications for supply chain professionals.

While tariff policies and regional conflicts continue to create friction, the sheer scale of AI infrastructure investment is reshaping global logistics priorities and capacity allocation. Companies need to pivot their procurement strategies, warehouse positioning, and transportation planning to capture opportunities in semiconductor and networking equipment flows. DHL forecasts global goods trade will expand at 3.4% annually through 2029, significantly faster than the previous decade's 2.7% rate.

Supply chain teams must prepare for sustained high-volume, time-sensitive flows of technology components while maintaining flexibility to navigate persistent geopolitical and policy uncertainty.

#ai-infrastructure

#global-trade

#semiconductor-demand

#tariff-policy

#supply-chain-resilience

#geopolitical-risk

#trade-growth

#logistics-innovation

#data-center-buildout

Frequently Asked Questions

What This Means for Your Supply Chain

Simulation Suggestion

this month

What if semiconductor supply constraints emerge during peak AI infrastructure buildout?

Model a scenario where semiconductor lead times increase by 6-8 weeks due to concentrated demand from AI data center projects competing for limited foundry capacity. Assume 25% of semiconductor sourcing is delayed from primary suppliers. Analyze inventory policy adjustments needed to maintain service levels for downstream tech customers.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

this week

What if US tariff policy expands to include AI infrastructure components?

Model expanded tariff coverage that includes semiconductors and data-transmission equipment currently exempt from tariff increases as of August 2026. Assume 15-25% cost increase on affected components. Analyze impact on landed costs, pricing strategies, nearshoring decisions, and inventory management for companies serving US data center customers.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

strategic

What if geopolitical tensions expand beyond the Middle East to Asian supply hubs?

Simulate disruption to semiconductor and electronics manufacturing in Taiwan or South Korea due to escalating geopolitical conflict. Assume 15-30% temporary reduction in supply from primary chip manufacturers for 8-12 weeks. Model alternative sourcing options, inventory buffers, and transportation route diversification needed to maintain AI infrastructure component flows.

Run this scenario

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