Air Cargo Rates Remain Elevated Despite Weak Demand

The air cargo market remains paradoxically constrained despite weakening demand, with airlines maintaining elevated pricing by strategically repositioning freighter capacity toward higher-yield routes and regions. Rather than pursuing volume growth, carriers are prioritizing profitability and operational reliability, indicating a structural shift away from pre-disruption network patterns. This behavior reflects ongoing supply-demand imbalances: capacity is returning unevenly, with concentrated growth in the Middle East and South Asia while other regions remain undersupplied.

For supply chain professionals, this signals both risks and opportunities. The uneven capacity recovery creates regional bottlenecks that could extend lead times on non-prioritized routes, forcing shippers to negotiate intensively or shift sourcing patterns. However, the carrier focus on profitable lanes suggests that those on preferred routes may experience improved service reliability and less volatile pricing.

Companies reliant on air freight should expect continued rate pressure on secondary lanes and should consider consolidating shipments or exploring alternative routing strategies. The persistence of elevated rates despite demand weakness indicates that the market has not fully normalized from recent disruptions. Shippers should prepare for rates to remain sticky rather than falling sharply, and capacity planning should account for regional disparities that could last several quarters.