Why are airfreight rates stable when peak season typically drives price increases?

Current market conditions reflect a balance between available capacity (including converted passenger aircraft) and current demand levels. However, rates typically remain vulnerable to spikes as peak season intensifies, particularly in the weeks leading up to holiday shipping deadlines. The stability appears to be a temporary window rather than a structural change.

Should my company lock in airfreight rates now before peak season accelerates?

Yes—this period of rate firmness presents an opportunity to secure capacity and rates through forward bookings. By committing to shipments early, companies can reduce exposure to typical peak-season surcharges and improve cost predictability. Supply chain teams should assess peak-period volumes and engage carriers for rate agreements.

Which trade lanes are most affected by peak-season airfreight pressure?

Asia-to-North America and Asia-to-Europe routes typically experience the greatest capacity constraints and rate volatility during peak season, driven by holiday e-commerce demand and limited passenger aircraft capacity.

What alternative strategies can companies use if airfreight costs rise?

Options include: advancing shipment timing to use off-peak rates, shifting to slower ocean freight for non-time-sensitive goods, consolidating shipments to improve per-unit economics, diversifying across regional carriers, and optimizing inventory positioning to reduce last-minute emergency shipments.

How long will rate stability last into peak season?

Historically, rate stability typically holds through early-to-mid peak season (October-early November) before pressure builds as demand concentrates around major shopping events and year-end deadlines. Supply chain teams should plan rate increase scenarios for late November through December.

Shipping & Freight

Moderate

Airfreight Rates Remain Stable as Peak Season Approaches

Sep 23, 2026

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The signal

Airfreight rates are maintaining stability as the global supply chain enters its busiest season, signaling a period of relative predictability for shippers despite historically volatile aviation logistics markets. This rate resilience reflects a balance between constrained capacity and moderating demand in key trade lanes, providing a window of opportunity for supply chain professionals to lock in transportation commitments before potential year-end volatility.

The firmness in airfreight pricing—rather than sharp increases—suggests that current supply and demand dynamics remain relatively equilibrated. However, this stability may be temporary, as peak season traditionally brings rate spikes due to concentrated holiday shopping demand, capacity constraints, and increased competition for belly space on passenger aircraft conversions.

For supply chain teams, this development underscores the importance of proactive capacity planning and rate negotiations during this window. Organizations should assess their peak-season volumes, consider forward-booking strategies, and diversify modal options to mitigate exposure to potential rate increases as demand surges.

Frequently Asked Questions

What This Means for Your Supply Chain

Simulation Suggestion

immediate

What if you advance 15% of peak-season volumes to off-peak airfreight now?

Simulate the financial and operational impact of front-loading 15% of planned peak-season airfreight volume into current periods at stable rates. Calculate the cost savings from avoiding peak-season surcharges, assess inventory carrying costs from earlier delivery, and identify which SKUs (electronics, apparel, perishables) are best suited for advance shipment. Determine optimal advance-shipping percentages across product categories.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

this month

What if airfreight rates increase 20–30% during peak season weeks?

Simulate the impact of a typical peak-season airfreight rate surge of 20–30% on your current shipping plans. Model the cost impact by applying this rate increase to planned airfreight volumes across key origin-destination pairs (Asia-to-North America, Asia-to-Europe) and calculate total landed cost changes. Identify which shipments could be shifted to ocean freight or advance-booked at current rates to mitigate exposure.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

this week

What if capacity constraints force 30% of peak-season airfreight to ocean freight?

Simulate the service-level and cost implications of a forced shift of 30% of planned peak-season airfreight volume to ocean freight due to capacity exhaustion. Model the transit-time extension (typically +15–25 days), assess impact on delivery windows for time-sensitive products, calculate total cost changes, and identify which customer segments or geographies can absorb longer transit times. Determine contingency modal splits.

Run this scenario

Go deeper:

Supply Chain Simulation: A Guide for Operators

What discrete-event, agent-based, and Monte Carlo simulation actually do, in plain language for supply chain leaders.

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The signal

Frequently Asked Questions

What This Means for Your Supply Chain

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