Amazon to Deliver 86% of Own Packages, Cutting USPS & UPS Reliance
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The signal
Amazon is dramatically accelerating its vertical integration into parcel delivery, projecting that it will handle over 86% of its own package deliveries in the coming year. This strategic move represents a fundamental shift in how the e-commerce giant manages its logistics network and signals declining dependence on traditional carriers USPS and UPS. For supply chain professionals, this development carries significant implications for carrier relationships, competitive dynamics in last-mile delivery, and the broader trend of major retailers building proprietary logistics capabilities.
The company's internal forecast—though preliminary—indicates Amazon has successfully scaled its Fulfillment by Amazon (FBA) network and Amazon Logistics operations to absorb the vast majority of its parcel volume. This is not merely an operational optimization; it reflects years of infrastructure investment in sorting facilities, delivery stations, and driver networks across North America. The shift compounds pressure on traditional carriers, which have long depended on e-commerce volume to offset declining mail revenues and justify their fixed cost bases.
Supply chain teams should monitor this trend closely, as it may reshape carrier relationships, pricing negotiations, and capacity availability for other high-volume shippers. Additionally, this move positions Amazon to offer more competitive fulfillment services to third-party sellers and may accelerate the consolidation of last-mile delivery into fewer, more specialized players.
Frequently Asked Questions
What This Means for Your Supply Chain
What if Amazon captures additional share, forcing UPS/USPS to raise rates 8-12%?
Model the impact of Amazon achieving 90%+ self-delivery penetration, triggering a 8-12% rate increase from remaining carriers (USPS, UPS, FedEx) to offset volume loss and maintain network profitability. Measure cost impact across a typical enterprise shipper's parcel volume and assess need to shift to alternative carriers or fulfillment strategies.
Run this scenarioWhat if competitor retailers accelerate their own delivery networks?
Model the ripple effect if Walmart, Target, and other major e-commerce players invest in proprietary last-mile delivery networks in response to Amazon's strategy, fragmenting parcel volume across 3-5 networks. Assess impact on carrier density, route efficiency, pricing power for carriers, and viability of traditional parcel delivery economics.
Run this scenarioWhat if Amazon's self-delivery capacity hits limits during peak season?
Simulate a scenario where Amazon's internal delivery network reaches 95% utilization during peak holiday season (Nov-Dec), forcing the company to temporarily rely on USPS/UPS for overflow. Model the impact on service levels, delivery times, and costs if Amazon must negotiate emergency capacity with carriers or delay third-party seller fulfillment.
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