Why will freight rates take 6-12 months to normalize after peace returns?

According to Aramex CEO Amadou Diallo, the delay reflects the time needed to re-establish disrupted supply chains. Currently, many shipping lines and airlines are not operating routes through the region, ports are congested, and containers are in short supply. Once peace is declared, carriers must restore capacity, containers must be repositioned, and port congestion must clear. This replenishment cycle typically takes 6-12 months before rates return to pre-crisis levels.

What are the current freight rate levels and what caused the spike?

Freight rates have jumped from approximately $2,000 to around $12,000 per shipment (a 6x increase). The spike is driven by the US-Iran conflict, high oil prices, closure of the Strait of Hormuz, shortage of containers, port congestion, and reduced shipping line and airline participation. These factors combine to create severe capacity constraints.

How is Aramex responding operationally to the crisis?

Aramex has deployed multimodal solutions that route European shipments to the GCC via Turkish ports and alternative gateways including Sohar, Salalah, and Jeddah. The company has also applied marginal surcharges to last-mile services, implemented AI-driven route optimization, and leveraged its local talent base to maintain operations. Demand for contract logistics and warehousing solutions has accelerated as customers seek to reduce exposure to ocean freight price volatility.

What is Aramex's growth strategy looking forward?

Aramex aims for double-digit revenue growth in 2026 and 2027. The company is expanding across Saudi Arabia, Asia, Africa, America, and Europe. It is also testing drone delivery for last-mile and inter-station shipments, investing in AI for dynamic route optimization and predictive delivery, and capitalizing on the trend of manufacturing shifting from Asia to the Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt as companies seek nearshoring opportunities.

Which industries and regions are most affected by the current disruption?

Retail, e-commerce, and fashion have been weakened by reduced tourism and elevated logistics costs. The GCC region, Turkey, and European trade lanes have experienced the most acute disruptions. However, Aramex's diversified geographic footprint across ports in Oman, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Turkey is enabling the company to serve multiple regions. Demand for contract logistics is particularly strong in the UAE, Jeddah, Turkey, and India.

Shipping & Freight

High Impact

Aramex CEO: Freight rates won't ease for 6-12 months after peace

Nov 2, 2026

Don't miss the next port disruption

Daily supply-chain brief. Free, unsubscribe anytime.

The signal

Aramex has achieved record quarterly revenue of Dh1.83 billion (up 22 percent year-on-year) in Q2 2026, driven primarily by strong freight forwarding demand and the company's agile response to Middle East geopolitical disruptions. CEO Amadou Diallo indicated that freight rates, which have surged from $2,000 to approximately $12,000 per shipment due to the US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure, will remain elevated for 6-12 months after regional peace is restored. This extended normalization window reflects the lag needed to re-establish supply chains, replenish shipping lines and airline capacity, and clear port congestion.

The company has mitigated the crisis through strategic multimodal solutions leveraging Turkish ports and alternative Gulf gateways (Sohar, Salalah, Jeddah) to maintain European-to-GCC corridors. However, the elevated cost environment, fuel surcharges, port congestion, and departure of some expatriate staff have strained operations. Demand in e-commerce, fashion, and retail has weakened due to fewer tourists and economic uncertainty.

For supply chain professionals, this signals a prolonged period of elevated logistics costs and the strategic value of geographic diversification and multimodal capabilities. Aramex's expansion plans across Saudi Arabia, Africa, Asia, and the Americas suggest that Middle East logistics infrastructure will increasingly compete with traditional Asian hubs as manufacturers shift production closer to demand centers.

#freight-rate-surge

#middle-east-logistics

#geopolitical-supply-chain

#supply-chain-resilience

#alternative-routes

#port-congestion

Frequently Asked Questions

What This Means for Your Supply Chain

Simulation Suggestion

strategic

What if the Middle East conflict extends 12 months longer than anticipated?

Assume the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East persists for an additional 12 months beyond current expectations. Model the impact on ocean freight rates (assume no decrease from current $12,000 per shipment baseline), shipping line capacity recovery, port throughput (continued congestion), and customer demand in e-commerce and retail. Assess how extended high-cost environment affects sourcing decisions, inventory positioning, and mode selection (air versus ocean).

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

strategic

What if manufacturing continues to shift from Asia to Middle East and North Africa?

Model a scenario where the trend of Asian manufacturers relocating production to Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, and Morocco accelerates. Assume a 20 percent increase in intra-region and regional-to-Europe trade over 24 months. Assess the impact on demand for contract logistics, warehousing capacity (especially in UAE, Jeddah, Turkey, India), multimodal transportation, and the competitive positioning of regional logistics providers. Evaluate implications for Aramex and similar operators.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

this month

What if Turkish and alternative port capacity becomes saturated?

Simulate a scenario where Turkish ports and alternative GCC gateways (Sohar, Salalah, Jeddah) reach capacity limits and cannot absorb additional diverted traffic from the Strait of Hormuz closure. Model the impact on transit times, service level for European shipments, and forced mode shifts to air freight. Assess increased costs, demand for contract logistics and nearshore warehousing, and potential customer migration to alternative routing or sourcing strategies.

Run this scenario

Go deeper:

Supply Chain Simulation: How It Works and How to Choose Software

What discrete-event, agent-based, and Monte Carlo simulation actually do, how to evaluate simulation software, and what it costs.

Risk & DisruptionHigh Impact

Maritime security threats and labor strikes disrupt global container shipping

Oct 30, 2026

Shipping & FreightHigh Impact

Kuehne+Nagel: No Near-Term Return to Normal Middle East Shipping

Jul 23, 2026

Trade Policy & TariffsHigh Impact

Gulf Freight Industry Faces Permanent Shift Despite Peace Deal