Autonomous Trucks Hit Cost Parity by 2028, Study Shows

Kearney and the MIT Mobility Initiative have released a definitive forecast showing that autonomous trucks will achieve cost parity with human-driven trucks in the US around 2028, fundamentally reshaping long-haul trucking economics. The analysis projects driverless trucks at $4 per mile in 2026, declining to roughly $2.60 by 2028 when they match conventional truck economics. This timing advantage in the US is driven by North American driver costs (approximately $10,000 monthly including benefits), roughly double European levels and four times Middle Eastern wages.

The forecast depends heavily on fleet scale: reaching 40,000 autonomous trucks by 2035 enables the projected cost reductions, but if adoption plateaus at 10,000 trucks, parity could slip to 2032. The study reveals diverging business models competing for this value pool, including OEM platforms (Volvo), purpose-built vehicles (Humble), autonomous carriers (Bot Auto), and virtual-driver software (Aurora, Waabi). Regulatory uncertainty remains substantial, with only Texas, Arizona, Florida, and Georgia permitting fully driverless operation, while liability frameworks and virtual driver certification standards remain undefined.

The research synthesizes insights from over 25 interviews across vehicle developers, truck manufacturers, carriers, brokers, and investors, providing the most authoritative cost-parity timeline to date.