BIMCO: Geopolitical Risks Cloud Dry Bulk Outlook Through 2028

BIMCO has issued a cautionary outlook for the dry bulk shipping market in 2027 and 2028, citing persistent geopolitical disruptions as the primary driver of uncertainty. The organization has developed two competing forecast scenarios: one assumes the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, while the other assumes reopening. Under both scenarios, dry bulk demand growth is projected at only 0.5 to 2.5 percent annually, while fleet supply is expected to grow at 3 to 4 percent, creating a structural imbalance that will pressure shipping rates and operational margins.

The disruptions extend beyond the Strait of Hormuz: ongoing attacks on Black Sea shipping infrastructure have compounded the crisis by blocking critical grain and fertilizer exports from Russia and Ukraine. These cascading effects are dampening global economic growth, constraining commodity supplies, and creating food security concerns. BIMCO warns that if Ukrainian and Russian grain volumes remain unavailable in 2027 (rather than recovering as forecast), grain shipment growth could decline by up to 4 percentage points, further eroding dry bulk demand.

For supply chain professionals, this forecast signals a prolonged period of rate pressure, lower sailing speeds, and elevated fleet utilization. Shippers dependent on dry bulk capacity should anticipate tighter margins, while carriers must prepare for oversupply conditions. The return of bulk carriers to the Panama Canal could also compress average sailing distances, reducing ton-mile demand and reinforcing structural headwinds in the market through 2028.