Black Sea Grain Disruptions Create New Logistics Winners and Losers

What if Danube river transport costs increase 15% due to corridor congestion?

Simulate a scenario where increased demand for Danube river barge capacity from rerouted Ukrainian grain exports drives transport costs higher by 15%. Measure the impact on total landed cost for grain forwarded through TTS network versus alternative Baltic or Mediterranean routes. Evaluate whether pricing power allows cost pass-through or whether demand shifts to competing corridors.

What if Ferrovia do Mato Grosso reaches 80% capacity utilization within 6 months?

Model the impact of rapid capacity fill on Rumo's BR-070 terminal and rail corridors, assuming grain volumes from Mato Grosso and Goiás reach 80% of design capacity within 6 months of ramp-up. Assess revenue and EBITDA upside, but also model the constraint point where utilization limits further volume growth and creates pricing leverage. Evaluate competing corridors and modal shifts if capacity becomes constrained.

What if Black Sea disruptions persist for 12 months instead of resolving in 6 months?

Simulate extended Black Sea shipping constraints lasting 12 months instead of the assumed shorter duration. Model the cumulative benefit to TTS, Rumo, and Bunge Global from sustained rerouted volumes, but also model the risk that prolonged disruption triggers infrastructure investment by competitors, capacity additions from alternative operators, or demand destruction from higher grain prices. Evaluate whether current margin assumptions remain valid under extended disruption.