Canada's 50% Retaliatory Tariffs on US: Supply Chain Impact

What if landed costs increase 35-50% for goods crossing the US-Canada border?

Model a scenario where all imports from the US into Canada experience a 50% tariff duty, raising effective landed costs by 35-50% depending on product margins and current tariff baselines. Apply this cost increase to top 20 suppliers by volume and assess margin compression, pricing power, and customer impact.

What if companies accelerate nearshoring to Mexico and alternative suppliers outside North America?

Simulate a gradual supplier migration over 6-12 months where 30-50% of US-sourced volume shifts to Mexican USMCA-compliant suppliers and Asian alternatives. Model transit time changes (Mexico: +2-4 days, Asia: +25-35 days), cost impacts, and lead time variability. Assess inventory policy adjustments required to maintain service levels.

What if the tariff triggers a 60-90 day pre-tariff purchasing surge, then demand cliff post-implementation?

Model demand bulges in the 60 days preceding tariff implementation as companies front-load purchases, followed by 30-90 day demand contraction as buyers deplete elevated inventory and reduce orders. Assess warehouse capacity strain, working capital requirements, and cash flow impacts through the surge-cliff cycle.