Carrier Pricing Power Eases But Remains Strong at 70

The SONAR Pricing Power Index declined to 70 this week from 71, marking the fourth consecutive weekly decline, yet the freight market remains firmly in carriers' favor as the fourth quarter approaches. Intermodal contract rates fell to $1.61 per mile from $1.68, and ocean import bookings softened by about 2%, driving most of the week's index decline. Despite the slight pullback, carriers continue to hold clear pricing leverage with tender rejections holding steady near 13.9%, spot rates remaining in the 95th percentile at $3.52 per mile, and truckload volumes staying soft as carriers become more selective about freight acceptance.

The three-month outlook projects the index climbing to 76 by mid-January, suggesting that carrier pricing power will strengthen further into the new year. Rail volumes remain elevated at the 99th percentile as carriers continue diverting freight from trucking to rail on mid-range lanes of 550 to 1,500 miles, a trend that reflects the ongoing shift in how shippers access capacity. Van contract rates moved upward to $2.74 per mile, putting them in the 84th percentile and showing carriers are actively repricing contracts higher even as some spot rates have eased from July peaks.

For supply chain professionals, this data points to a market where carrier relationships and contract timing become critical competitive factors. Shippers face persistent headwinds on pricing but may find opportunities during inevitable seasonal softness or when intermodal pricing stabilizes. The elevated rail volume suggests that mode flexibility and regional routing optimization will remain essential strategies for managing transportation costs through Q4 and into 2027.