Carriers Blank More Sailings to Prop Up Container Rates
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The signal
Container shipping carriers are taking deliberate action to stabilize freight rates across the three largest east-west trade lanes by significantly increasing blank sailings and introducing new freight all kinds (FAK) pricing. After three months of post-peak season declines, spot rates on Asia-Europe routes rebounded this week with Shanghai-Rotterdam climbing 3% to $3,632 per 40ft and Shanghai-Genoa rising 5% to $4,152 per 40ft. Major carriers including MSC and CMA CGM announced new FAK rates effective November 1st, with MSC setting rates at $4,500 per 40ft for Asia-North Europe and CMA CGM at $4,900 for Asia-west Mediterranean.
The strategy reflects carrier concern about demand deterioration as the market enters November. Drewry data shows blank sailings for the following week jumped from two to eight on Asia-Europe routes, signaling capacity management efforts. However, industry analysts predict the new FAK pricing will likely fail to stick, with European forwarders already receiving discounted offers and spot market rates remaining weak compared to published indices.
For supply chain professionals, this development signals continued pricing volatility and uncertainty. While transpacific and transatlantic rates showed more modest gains, underlying demand concerns persist, particularly in North America where peak season is officially wrapping up. The tension between carrier capacity management and shipper resistance to higher rates suggests rates may remain under pressure despite carriers' defensive tactics.
Companies affected by this story:
Frequently Asked Questions
What This Means for Your Supply Chain
What if blank sailings remain elevated through November and Asia-Europe capacity stays tight?
Simulate a scenario where carrier blank sailings remain at elevated levels (8 or more per week) through November on Asia-Europe routes, restricting available vessel capacity and preventing the predicted FAK rate decline. Model the impact on shipper booking patterns, freight rate ceilings, and forwarder margins if rates stabilize 5-10% above current spot levels.
Run this scenarioWhat if FAK rates collapse and carriers resort to aggressive spot discounting?
Simulate Linerlytica's predicted scenario where announced November FAK rates fail to stick and carriers instead activate aggressive spot discounting (10-15% below FAK) to defend market share. Model the cascading effects on shipper booking urgency, consolidation strategies, and the likelihood of further blank sailings if volume shifts accelerate.
Run this scenarioWhat if North American demand decline accelerates faster than seasonal norms?
Simulate an accelerated demand slowdown scenario on transpacific routes where North American import volumes contract 15-20% faster than typical seasonal decline. Model impacts on west coast port volumes, carrier blank sailing announcements, and the sustainability of current rate levels if significant capacity emerges.
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