Why are charter rates at a four-year high when record ship orders are coming in 2028?

Owners secured long-term employment for existing vessels throughout 2024 and 2025, creating a prompt tonnage shortage. Despite forward visibility of massive new capacity arriving in 2028, charterers cannot access available ships today and are forced to book further ahead at elevated rates. Braemar notes that 94 fixtures representing 570,000 teu have already been arranged for 2028 delivery, but the current market is driven by immediate supply constraints rather than medium-term concerns.

What is the relationship between charter rates and freight spot rates in this market?

Charter rates have diverged sharply from freight rates. While the Freightos Baltic Index fell 61 percent between January and October 2025, Braemar's charter index rose 3 percent. This divergence means charter costs now run at roughly double their historical 2021-2024 average relative to freight rates, indicating that charterers are paying a significant premium for guaranteed capacity regardless of spot market conditions.

Which carriers are most aggressively chartering capacity in this environment?

Maersk has emerged as the busiest charterer, increasing fixtures by 14 percent and chartered capacity by 20 percent despite overall market contraction. CMA CGM, which led chartering activity in 2024, has cut fixtures by 41 percent. This divergence suggests different strategic positioning and risk tolerance among major carriers as they prepare for the 2028 capacity wave.

What are the implications of longer booking lead times for supply chain planning?

Vessels are now being fixed an average of 7.8 months in advance, up from 6.8 months a year earlier, with lead times exceeding 10 months for 3,000 teu and above vessels. For feeder operators and regional services, this means supply chain teams must forecast demand and secure capacity far further in advance than historical norms, increasing planning complexity and commitment risk. Q3 data shows 50 percent of fixtures were for ships delivering more than three months ahead, versus 23 percent in the same period of 2024.

What does Braemar's outlook suggest about charter rates post-2028?

Braemar analyst Jonathan Roach warns that the 2028 delivery wave, paired with potential easing of Red Sea disruption and forecasted weaker demand in 2027, could significantly undermine charter rates. The analysis notes that 94 fixtures totaling 570,000 teu are already committed for 2028 delivery, representing the largest delivery wave on record. Roach concludes: 'Charterers are queuing today. By 2028, owners may be the ones in the queue,' signaling a structural reversal in bargaining power.

Shipping & Freight

High Impact

Charter Rates Hit 4-Year High Despite Record Orderbook

Oct 23, 2026

Get tomorrow's supply chain signal

Daily supply-chain brief. Free, unsubscribe anytime.

The signal

Containership charter rates have surged to their highest level in four years, reaching 325.8 on Braemar's charter index, a 21 percent year-over-year increase. This counterintuitive rally occurs despite a record orderbook that will inject unprecedented capacity into the market around 2028. The disconnect reveals a critical market dynamic: owners have locked vessels into long-term contracts throughout 2024 and 2025, creating an acute shortage of immediately available tonnage that is forcing charterers to book vessels significantly further in advance.

Charterers are now fixing ships an average of 7.8 months before delivery, compared with 6.8 months a year earlier, with lead times exceeding 10 months for larger vessels. This structural imbalance is driving charter costs to roughly double their 2021-2024 averages relative to spot freight rates, which have actually fallen 61 percent during the same period. The pressure is most acute in feeder and panamax segments, where median daily rates have climbed to $28,625 and $58,000 respectively.

The phenomenon reflects a temporary supply crunch that masks a fundamentally different long-term outlook when the 2028 capacity wave arrives.

How this affects:

Advance Auto Parts

Open the full daily intelligence brief · Pulse 77

Frequently Asked Questions

What This Means for Your Supply Chain

Simulation Suggestion

strategic

What if 2028 capacity additions arrive on schedule and demand remains flat or declines?

Simulate a scenario where the record 2028 orderbook delivery proceeds as planned (equivalent to the entire 2002 global fleet), coupled with flat or negative demand growth. Model the impact on spot charter rates, vessel utilization rates, and the margins available to owners and charterers. Assess how this would affect the decision calculus for charterers currently locking in 12-month plus forward contracts at elevated rates.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

strategic

What if demand weakness in 2027 forces early capacity deployment before the 2028 delivery wave?

Simulate a demand downturn in 2027 that prompts early charter contract terminations or blank sailings among carriers. Model how this early weakening could affect the spot rates and forward fixtures that charterers are currently locking in at premium levels. Analyze the cost impact of being committed to 10-12 month contracts if the market turns sooner than the 2028 delivery wave.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

this month

What if Red Sea disruption normalizes faster than expected, reducing routing diversity premiums?

Model the impact of accelerated normalization of Suez Canal traffic and Red Sea routing on vessel availability and charter rates. A faster return to historical Far East-Europe transit patterns could reduce the need for extra tonnage buffers and extended lead times, potentially allowing charterers to shift from 10+ month advance bookings back to shorter-term contracts. Assess cost savings and flexibility gains.

Run this scenario

Go deeper:

Supply Chain Simulation: How It Works and How to Choose Software

What discrete-event, agent-based, and Monte Carlo simulation actually do, how to evaluate simulation software, and what it costs.

Shipping & FreightModerate

Container Charter Market Surges as Ocean Rates Rise Global

Jul 6, 2026

Shipping & FreightHigh Impact

Maersk & CMA CGM Orders Push Container Fleet Orderbook to 45%

Sep 22, 2026

Shipping & FreightHigh Impact

Container Ship Orderbook Hits 42% as MSC Dominates Capacity Race