How severe is the current port congestion compared to the Covid-19 pandemic?

In absolute terms, current stranded capacity at 4.3 million TEUs exceeds the 2022 Covid peak of 4 million TEUs. However, as a percentage of global fleet capacity, congestion stands at 12.6 percent versus the 2022 peak of 15.7 percent, due to the 34.4 million TEU global fleet size today compared to 25.3 million TEUs then. Despite lower percentage utilization, operational delays are severe: Shanghai is experiencing 5-12 day wait times depending on service tier.

Why are carriers like Maersk skipping calls at Shanghai?

Carriers are omitting port calls to avoid compounding schedule delays and protecting service reliability. Maersk's recent customer advisory noted that the Delos Wave will skip Shanghai and call Xiamen instead, while two other vessels on the Northern Star service were similarly rerouted. At least 320,000 TEUs of Gemini Cooperation capacity alone bypassed Shanghai in a two-week window.

What is driving freight rate increases?

Multiple factors are converging: persistent port congestion reducing vessel availability, capacity shortages on key trade lanes (down 9 percent month-over-month on Asia-U.S. East Coast in August), Panama Canal backlogs, and elevated fuel costs from Middle East tensions. Shanghai-to-U.S. West Coast rates hit a new 2025 annual high of $6,802 per 40-foot container, while East Coast rates extended the 2025 peak at $9,507.

How long is this disruption expected to last?

The article indicates a short-term horizon: Maersk expects two rerouted vessels to bring Shanghai back into their rotation by October. However, the underlying infrastructure constraints suggest medium-term pressure. Drewry anticipates freight rates will continue climbing in coming weeks due to persistent congestion and equipment shortages.

Which trade lanes and cargo types are most at risk?

Asia-to-U.S. routes (both coasts) and intra-Asia lanes show the highest rate pressure and capacity tightness. Intra-Asia rates rose 6 percent week-over-week to $1,091 per 40-foot container. Cargo destined for Shanghai is being rerouted through Xiamen, Hong Kong, and other southern ports, extending transit times and complicating supply chains dependent on Shanghai's integrated inland logistics network.

Shipping & Freight

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China Port Delays Hit 15-Year High, Forcing Major Carrier Reroutes

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The signal

China's major container ports are experiencing severe congestion following multiple typhoons, with stranded container capacity now exceeding the 4 million TEU peak recorded during the Covid-19 pandemic. Operators like Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and MSC are actively rerouting vessels and omitting port calls to minimize schedule disruptions, with at least 465,000 TEUs of capacity bypassing Shanghai, Ningbo, and other eastern Chinese gateways over a two-week period.

While the percentage of global fleet capacity tied up remains below 2022 levels due to new ship orders, the operational impact is acute: Shanghai is seeing 12-day wait times at some terminals, freight rates from Shanghai to the U.S. have jumped 9 percent week-over-week, and intra-Asia rates are climbing for a third consecutive week. This situation signals structural challenges in port infrastructure that extend beyond weather events, as rising container demand meets aging terminal capacity and narrowing equipment availability.

#china-port-congestion

#container-shipping-delays

#shanghai-ningbo-backed-up

#freight-rate-surge

#supply-chain-disruption

#ocean-freight-crisis

#typhoon-impact

#vessel-schedule-changes

#asia-us-route-pressure

#maritime-logistics

Frequently Asked Questions

What This Means for Your Supply Chain

Simulation Suggestion

immediate

What if Shanghai wait times extend beyond 12 days for 8 weeks?

Simulate the impact of extended port delays by increasing Shanghai dwell time from current 5-12 days to 15-18 days for the next 8 weeks. Model how this affects inventory positions for goods destined to North America and Europe, assume carriers continue to skip selective calls, and recalculate total landed cost including freight rate premiums (currently 9 percent elevated) and potential safety stock increases needed to offset service level risk.

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Simulation Suggestion

this week

What if 25 percent of your Shanghai volume shifts to secondary ports?

Model a scenario where 25 percent of container volume planned for Shanghai is rerouted through Xiamen (as Maersk is doing) or Ningbo, introducing additional 2-4 day transits and requiring coordination with inland distribution networks in different regions. Recalculate fulfillment timelines for domestic China distribution and assess labor, warehousing, and last-mile costs at alternative consolidation points.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

this month

What if freight rates from Asia to U.S. increase another 15 percent over 6 weeks?

Given current rate momentum (9 percent weekly increases on Asia-U.S. routes) and supply constraints, project a cumulative 15 percent additional rate increase over 6 weeks. Model impact on total landed cost for containerized imports, assess margin compression across product categories, and identify which sourcing decisions or customer price adjustments are needed to maintain target profitability.

Run this scenario

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Supply Chain Simulation: How It Works and How to Choose Software

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