CNY Sea Freight Chaos: Bookings Break Down as Port Congestion Mounts

What if 40 percent of your pre-CNY bookings roll to later sailings?

Simulate a scenario where confirmed ocean freight bookings from China are subject to a 40 percent rollover rate during the six weeks preceding Chinese New Year 2026. Assume affected containers incur 10-14 days of additional delay, face incremental storage and handling charges at Chinese ports, and may miss customer delivery windows. Model the impact on inventory levels, safety stock requirements, and customer service levels for SKUs dependent on pre-CNY ocean shipments.

What if inland trucking capacity to Chinese ports declines 35 percent before CNY?

Model a 35 percent reduction in available trucking capacity to major Chinese ports (Ningbo, Nansha, Shanghai) in the four weeks before Chinese New Year due to labor shortages and equipment constraints. Assume gate-in slot availability tightens, CY cut-offs become inflexible, and delays of 2-3 days occur for even minor scheduling misses. Assess the impact on ability to consolidate full containers, lead time buffer erosion, and cost inflation from demurrage and expedited trucking.

What if your post-CNY restart shipments face a 21-day restart gap before capacity normalizes?

Simulate a scenario where cargo queued for shipment after Chinese New Year (post-23 February) experiences a 21-day period of reduced terminal, factory, and trucking capacity as operations restart gradually. Assume factories do not return to full production until early March, causing inventory depletion upstream and order fulfillment delays downstream. Model the inventory swing, demand fulfillment risk, and need for safety stock buffers to bridge the post-holiday capacity void.