Container Rates Mixed as Peak Season Winds Down, Tanker Rates Stable

Container shipping rates from Asia to the US remained elevated this week but showed mixed directional signals, with West Coast rates holding between 7,475 to 8,300 per FEU and East Coast rates between 9,600 to 11,300 per FEU. Major index providers reported divergent trends: Drewry noted a 3% rise Shanghai-LA but 1% decline Shanghai-NY, while Freightos recorded a 2% West Coast decline and flat East Coast rates, signaling peak season demand may be weakening. Carriers are responding by removing significant capacity: 58,200 TEU blanked on Far East-West Coast and 35,500 TEU on Far East-East Coast routes, suggesting industry doubts about rate sustainability despite remaining triple-digit premiums versus February levels. Chemical tanker rates out of the US Gulf remained unchanged week-on-week, though downward pressure persists on key routes.

US Gulf-to-ARA saw steady rates but slow demand post-EPCA, while US Gulf-to-Asia faced wait-and-see sentiment from charterers concerned about US-China port tariffs and trade uncertainty. The US Gulf-to-Brazil lane remained unusually quiet with mixed signals at the high and low ends of rate ranges. Most market participants are attempting to reposition cargoes and vessels away from China-focused routes. These mixed signals reflect a critical supply chain inflection point.

Peak season demand that sustained historically high rates through mid-October is now weakening with Golden Week concluded and November retail arrivals projected to fall 11% month-on-month. Supply chain professionals must prepare for potential rate compression while managing the operational complexity of blank sailings, port congestion, and geopolitical tariff uncertainty that could reverse downward momentum.