Freight Cycle Expected to Last Years, Not Months

FreightWaves analyst Zach Strickland has issued a stark warning to industry participants: the current freight cycle is far from resolution and will likely extend significantly longer than market expectations. Using 20 years of historical data from the Cass Freight Shipments Index and Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, Strickland identified at least six distinct disruptions since 2016, characterizing the present environment as one of the most prolonged and unusual stretches in modern freight history. The current Outbound Tender Rejection Rate of 12.73% masks conflicting signals, with rising tender volumes suggesting continued demand even as rejection rates decline. Supply chain professionals who are positioning for a near-term market reversal are making a critical miscalculation about the structural nature of freight volatility. The roots of today's volatile environment trace back to the 2004-2008 period, when fuel surcharge mechanisms emerged and the brokerage industry modernized.

The 2008-2009 freight recession represented one of the harshest demand shocks in the modern era, followed by a stabilizing period from 2010-2016 characterized by predictable seasonal rhythms. However, the stability of that decade should not be treated as the baseline for planning. Strickland emphasizes that rapid booms create conditions for equally sharp busts, and economists typically target 2-3% GDP growth as a stabilizing benchmark. Geographic analysis reveals concentrated volatility on the West Coast, with van rates showing significant swings in the Mountain Prairie region (El Paso, Tucson, Ontario) and refrigerated rates declining along the Pacific corridor, while Southern California port strike impacts represent a critical forward-looking concern. For carriers, brokers, and shippers, the key implication is structural: volatile and extended cycles represent the more reliable planning baseline than the unusually smooth 2010-2016 pattern.

Organizations that assume historical stability patterns will return are at risk of operational misalignment and underinvestment in flexibility. The current market environment demands scenario planning across multiple cycle lengths, dynamic capacity allocation strategies, and continuous monitoring of regional volatility hotspots. Assuming December provides cycle relief, as Strickland warns against, could represent one of the worst strategic decisions available to logistics professionals in the current environment.