When does Gemini expect to complete its full return to Suez Canal routing?

According to Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen, the carriers expect more or less all Gemini services to return through Suez, with possible one or two exceptions, somewhere in the course of Q1 2025. The phased approach began with partial service returns in late 2024.

What is the new AE18/SE5 service and why does it matter?

AE18/SE5 is a new transhipment hub-only service launched in November connecting Shanghai-Xiamen-Tanjung Pelepas-Algeciras-Tangier-Algeciras-Xiamen via Suez. It consolidates West Mediterranean hub coverage and enables complementary flows to West Africa and Latin America by giving Gemini's Mediterranean hubs expanded relay transhipment responsibilities.

How are port calls changing on existing Gemini Asia-Europe services?

Asia-North Europe Loop 1 (AE2/NE1) now calls Rotterdam instead of Tangier as its first European port. Asia-Mediterranean Loop 2 (AE11/SE2) drops westbound Tangier in favor of Port Said and adds Salalah pre-Suez. Loop 4 adds Damietta and replaces Shanghai with Nansha, reflecting a twin-hub strategy at the Suez entrance.

Why is carriers' phased approach to Suez return considered positive?

Analyst Lars Jensen highlighted that the gradual normalization, currently at 30-35% market-wide, prevents overwhelming Mediterranean and European hubs with sudden capacity surges. This measured transition manages port congestion and allows carriers to balance inventory and service reliability without disrupting the supply chain.

What ports are emerging as critical hub nodes in the redesigned Gemini network?

West Mediterranean ports (Algeciras, Tangier) and Suez gateway ports (Port Said, Damietta, Salalah) are becoming increasingly central. Gemini appears to be developing a twin-hub strategy at Port Said and Damietta to optimize vessel and cargo flows through the Suez entrance.

Shipping & Freight

High Impact

Gemini Eyes Full Suez Return by Q1 with New Asia-Med Hub Strategy

Oct 19, 2026

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The signal

Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, operating through the Gemini Cooperation, are executing a strategic phased return to Suez Canal routing with expectations for full normalization by Q1 2024. The carriers are introducing a new dedicated transhipment service (AE18/SE5) connecting China to West Mediterranean ports via Suez, while restructuring existing Asia-Europe loops to optimize hub coverage and improve connections to West Africa and Latin America.

This deliberate, measured approach contrasts with industry fears of rapid route consolidation and demonstrates carrier discipline in managing port congestion and network capacity during the recovery period. Current market data suggests approximately 30-35% of Suez routing has normalized across industry, with the phased strategy earning praise from logistics analysts.

The network redesign consolidates West Mediterranean hub operations and introduces enhanced relay transhipment capabilities, positioning Gemini for improved service reliability and competitive advantage as Red Sea security concerns gradually diminish.

#suez-canal

#gemini-cooperation

#asia-europe-shipping

#supply-chain-resilience

Frequently Asked Questions

What This Means for Your Supply Chain

Simulation Suggestion

strategic

What if full Suez normalization is delayed beyond Q1 2025?

Simulate the impact of extended Cape of Good Hope routing for select Gemini Asia-Europe services if geopolitical tensions or port congestion at Port Said and Damietta delay full Suez return by 6-8 weeks beyond the announced Q1 timeline. Model the effects on lead times, vessel utilization, and feeder port strategies across Mediterranean and West African transhipment hubs.

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Simulation Suggestion

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How would increased Port Said and Damietta congestion affect network economics?

Model the cost and service level impact if Port Said and Damietta fail to keep pace with projected Gemini transhipment volumes during the phased Suez return. Test scenarios where gateway congestion increases vessel waiting times by 2-5 days and creates bottlenecks that cascade to Mediterranean relay hubs (Algeciras, Tangier). Evaluate alternative routing strategies and their cost vs. service trade-offs.

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Simulation Suggestion

immediate

What if West Mediterranean relay volumes spike ahead of schedule?

Simulate the operational impact if Gemini's new AE18/SE5 service and enhanced West Mediterranean hub strategy drive higher-than-expected transhipment volumes through Algeciras and Tangier in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025. Model cascading effects on feeder vessel availability, inland transport capacity, and service level commitments to regional customers in West Africa and Latin America.

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