How much diesel supply has been lost globally and where?

Approximately 2 million barrels per day (8% of global supply) has been removed from markets. Russia lost 800,000 barrels per day due to Ukrainian drone strikes on refinery infrastructure, with 30–50% of Russia's 6.5-million-barrel-per-day refining capacity offline or curtailed. The Middle East lost 650,000–800,000 barrels per day when Houthi strikes shut Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline and damaged the Jizan refinery.

What are the current diesel price impacts on U.S. trucking?

California diesel prices are nearing $8.50 per gallon, directly affecting operations at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. The diesel crack spread (price relative to crude) is at $270 per barrel equivalent versus gasoline at $188 per barrel, reflecting acute tightness in distillate markets. This pricing structure acts as a cost multiplier across all goods requiring trucking for distribution.

Why is U.S. East Coast diesel inventory at risk heading into winter?

U.S. East Coast diesel stocks are at their lowest seasonal level since 1982—the first year the Energy Information Administration began tracking this metric. Domestic refineries are already running near full capacity, leaving no room to boost output to rebuild inventory before winter heating demand peaks. This creates acute risk for heating oil consumers, with standard 150-gallon deliveries potentially costing close to $1,000 if prices remain above $6.50 per gallon.

How long will this diesel supply disruption last?

Lipow Oil Associates estimates repairs to Russian refining infrastructure could take months to years, especially given ongoing drone strikes and U.S./European sanctions. The Middle East situation remains volatile with ongoing Houthi attacks. Unlike temporary supply shocks, this appears to be a structural constraint lasting well into 2025 and beyond.

What are shippers and carriers doing to respond?

European refiners are actively purchasing spot cargo replacements (e.g., Poland's PKN Orlen acquiring 15–16 crude cargoes to replace contracted Saudi volumes). U.S. Gulf Coast crude exports have increased to 3–4 million barrels per day to serve this demand. Freight companies should expect sustained fuel surcharges and may need to adjust pricing models and inventory strategies accordingly.

Procurement

Critical

Global Diesel Supply Down 8%: Trucking Faces Winter Fuel Crunch

Sep 22, 2026

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The signal

A convergence of geopolitical disruptions has created an acute diesel shortage affecting freight operations worldwide. Ukrainian drone strikes have disabled 30–50% of Russian refining capacity, eliminating 800,000 barrels per day of diesel exports, while Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure have shut the East-West Pipeline and damaged the Jizan refinery, cutting another 650,000–800,000 barrels per day destined for Europe. S. refineries are already running near full capacity. For North American supply chains, the implications are immediate and severe.

S. container imports. S. East Coast diesel stocks have fallen to their lowest seasonal level since 1982, leaving virtually no buffer heading into winter demand. S.

Gulf Coast crude exports, further tightening domestic availability. The structural challenge extends beyond price. Repair of damaged Russian refining capacity could take months or years given active drone strikes and international sanctions, suggesting this is not a temporary disruption but a sustained supply constraint. Supply chain professionals must anticipate sustained elevated fuel costs, intensified competition for available diesel inventory, and potential service-level impacts on time-sensitive freight. Shippers relying on trucking or heating oil should treat fuel surcharges as structural increases rather than temporary premiums and consider strategic inventory positioning before winter demand peaks.

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Simulation Suggestion

immediate

What if diesel prices remain above $7.00/gallon through Q1 2025?

Model the impact of sustained elevated diesel costs on trucking operations across North American freight networks. Assume diesel prices stabilize at $7.00–$7.50 per gallon (vs. historical $2.50–$4.00 range) through Q1 2025 due to ongoing refinery outages in Russia and Middle East. Calculate compounded cost impact on per-mile trucking rates, fuel surcharges, and delivery costs for high-volume shippers relying on trucking to West Coast ports.

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this month

What if East Coast heating oil demand spikes before inventory recovers?

Model inventory shock scenario for Northeast heating oil supplies heading into winter 2024–2025. Assume early cold snap (October–November) drives demand acceleration while current inventory remains at 42-year lows. Calculate service level impact, price volatility, and alternative sourcing costs if supply cannot meet peak demand. Include implications for residential and commercial heating customers competing with industrial/transportation demand.

Run this scenario

Simulation Suggestion

strategic

What if Russian refining capacity does not recover for 18+ months?

Model long-term structural diesel supply constraint assuming Russian refinery repairs extend 18–24 months due to ongoing strikes and sanctions. Calculate cumulative impact on global diesel availability, spot market pricing, and alternative sourcing routes for Asia, Europe, and North America. Project implications for freight rates, equipment utilization, and shipper sourcing strategies if diesel remains in structural deficit through 2026.

Run this scenario

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