Indonesia's Shipbuilding Boom Blocked by Financing Costs

What if financing costs remain 2-3 percent higher than regional competitors through 2028?

Assume Indonesian shipyard financing costs remain 200-300 basis points higher than South Korean and Japanese competitors through 2028. Model the impact on production capacity utilization, supplier investment decisions, and the timeline for vessel delivery to government and private sector customers. Evaluate whether higher financing costs delay or reduce the volume of domestic component sourcing from local UMKM suppliers.

What if import restrictions on critical marine components force accelerated domestic substitution?

Simulate a scenario where new trade policies require 60 percent domestic sourcing of engines, gearboxes, and generators by 2027 (up from current 0-10 percent). Model the impact on production lead times, supply reliability, quality assurance, and whether domestic suppliers can scale production sufficiently. Evaluate resulting cost changes and delivery risk to the 200+ surface vessels and submarine projects in the pipeline.

What if the planned Rp5 trillion in shipyard consolidation and revitalization completes by 2027 instead of 2028?

Model accelerated capacity expansion across the five consolidated shipyards (Makassar, Bitung, Banjarmasin, Batam, Ambon) and Surabaya revitalization finishing one year early. Evaluate impact on vessel production throughput, delivery schedules for the Rp50 trillion contract backlog, and the ability to absorb additional orders from the projected Rp1.5 trillion opportunity. Assess whether earlier capacity availability changes domestic supplier investment timing and working capital requirements.